Rain Map 7 day 102019

Additional rain topping 1.5 inches, locally 2+ inches, is expected over the next week in Southwest Virginia.

The widespread soaking 1-2-inch potential was realized, and then some, with Tropical Storm Nestor's remnants Saturday night and early Sunday, with widespread 1.5- to 2.5-inch amounts across our region and a few spots getting closer to 3.

Combined with 1/2 to 2 inches of rain on Wednesday, this has significantly turned surface moisture fortunes that were in moderate to severe drought as of last Tuesday's data. Two more rains this week (and probably at least one more next week, beyond the scope of this post) may well erase even any lingering yellow on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor map by the time we enter November.

The first arrives Tuesday as a cold front sweeps across the region. A generous plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture pulled up ahead of this front will be lifted into showers and possible even a few thunderstorms. The potential will exist for another 1/2 to 1 inch of rain, with locally up to 2 inches, as this occurs on Tuesday.

The second occurs by the weekend, Friday and/or Saturday, possibly into Sunday. The timing, evolution and intensity of this system remains a bit fuzzy, but it may involve a lot of moisture, with a low-pressure trough digging far enough south to tap the Gulf of Mexico. More significant rain is likely, but just how much is still uncertain. 

In between, there will be some nice, sunny fall days with changing leaves.

Temperatures will not be extreme either direction this week, generally 60s highs, with 40s lows, dipping into some 30s by Thursday morning. We don't have Arctic air plunging in behind the midweek cold front. That may, however, bulge in across much of the central and eastern U.S. next week or early in November. 

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Contact Kevin Myatt at kevin.myatt@roanoke.com. Follow him on Twitter @kevinmyattwx.

 

Since 2003, Kevin Myatt has penned the weekly Weather Journal column, and since 2006, the Weather Journal blog, which becomes particularly busy with snow. Kevin has edited a book on hurricanes and has helped lead Virginia Tech students on storm chases.

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