Friday high temperatures 091119

Friday's forecast highs in the 70s are nothing extraordinary for mid-September, but it will feel cool after recent 90s.

Unless it gets even hotter Thursday (not expected but possible) or sometime later in the year (not likely), September 11 will go down as Blacksburg's hottest day of 2019, with a high of 94 degrees. 

Not only was it Blacksburg's hottest day of 2019, but it was the hottest Sept. 11 on record (previous record 93 in 1983), the hottest day in more than 7 years (since 95 on July 1, 2012), the hottest September day in 36 years and the second latest on the calendar it has been as high as 94 (a 94-degree high on Sept. 12, 1983, is the mark for those last two points).

Roanoke still barely managed to do what it usually does and have a hotter high temperature than Blacksburg, at 95. That didn't beat the Sept. 11 record of 98 from 1933 (Roanoke's official records go back to 1912, Blacksburg's to just 1952), but it was the 55th 90+ day of 2019, tying the year for 11th place with 1977 in nearly 108 years of official weather records, and the 10th 95+ day, which only ranks 28th. Roanoke has not had a 100-degree high temperature since July 8, 2012, peaking this year at 99 on July 21.

We will have another similarly hot day on Thursday, probably not quite as hot, with more scattered showers and storms, pouring and blowing and rumbling on one spot, and sprinkling on or missing others. 

By Friday, with the passage of a "backdoor" cold front from the north and northeast, we'll be back in the wedge of cooler, damp air banked against the mountains, and this may hold high temperatures below 80. That is about normal for mid-September but will feel fairly cool after these hot days. Muggy 60s-near 70 lows will dispel any false ideas that a piece of fall has settled in.

Over the weekend into early next week, it'll be fairly warm and humid with scattered showers and storms, augmented by a stalling front. 80s highs/60s lows will be the general temperature scheme.

If there is hope for a more widespread soaking rain to ease our overall dryness on the horizon, it is probably the tropical disturbance expected to move westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Whatever this disturbance becomes, it may be pulled north next week. It's much too far away to make any kind of confident forecasts on its intensity, track, landfall or inland movement, but there is at least a chance this could bring significant rain our way next week.

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Contact Kevin Myatt at kevin.myatt@roanoke.com. Follow him on Twitter @kevinmyattwx.

 

Since 2003, Kevin Myatt has penned the weekly Weather Journal column, and since 2006, the Weather Journal blog, which becomes particularly busy with snow. Kevin has edited a book on hurricanes and has helped lead Virginia Tech students on storm chases.

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