Rain total map

Weekend rain in region through Sunday at 5 p.m.

UPDATE 11:45 PM, 6/10/2019: The flash flood watch is past, and only a few light showers linger. Tuesday promises to be a sunny, dry day with relatively mild temperatures in the 70s. A chance of showers returns late Wednesday, but some questions on how widespread and intense that may or may not be. Enjoy Tuesday! Also a nice Friday-Saturday likely. END UPDATE

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UPDATE 9AM, 6/10/2019: With the potential for another 1-2 inches of rain, locally more, as rain bands and thunderstorms develop ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon and evening, the National Weather Service office in Blacksburg has decided to raise the flash flood watch again for localities generally from Roanoke south along the Blue Ridge and southwest along Interstate 81. (See the map linked here). This is as much a recognition of previously saturated ground as the threat of heavy rain. The passing front overnight and early Tuesday will bring dry weather back for a day, with a chance of showers returning by late in the day on Wednesday. END UPDATE

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The flash flood watch has expired and, in spite of expected additional showers and storms overnight into Monday, is not being reissued. That is the beginning of overall good news for anyone tired of the rain, though the wet weather will not give up easily in the coming week.

One reason the watch isn't being continued is a subtle shift of the weather pattern as a "wedge" of easterly winds against the mountains slowly relaxes and the flow around the upper-level low to the west slowly shifts more from the south and southwest rather than the southeast as the low gradually lifts northeast. This will mean there will be less of an upslope flow southeasterly flow against the mountains, lifting and concentrating the moisture in the intense bands that led to 6-10 inches of rain in some locations from the Roanoke Valley south along the Blue Ridge. 

But it won't mean an end to moisture flow into the region or periods of showers and storms. With a cold front approaching from the west and the easing of the wedge allowing somewhat warmer temperatures, possibly as high as 80 in some spots, on Monday, enhancing lift and instability, there will be an increased chance of thunderstorms, perhaps even a few reaching severe limits with gusty surface winds.

But the cold front will sweep the moisture out overnight Monday into early Tuesday, and we'll get rewarded with sunshine and, beyond maybe a few morning showers, no rain on Tuesday.

That break will be interrupted by  low moving from the Southeast up the coast Wednesday that will again likely circulate some showers into our region, especially by evening, perhaps into Thursday morning. Beyond that, however, much drier and somewhat cooler air pushes in for Friday and Saturday. There may be a chance of showers and storms again by next Sunday afternoon, but nothing like the soggy weekend we've just had.

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Contact Kevin Myatt at kevin.myatt@roanoke.com. Follow him on Twitter @kevinmyattwx.

 

Since 2003, Kevin Myatt has penned the weekly Weather Journal column, and since 2006, the Weather Journal blog, which becomes particularly busy with snow. Kevin has edited a book on hurricanes and has helped lead Virginia Tech students on storm chases.

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