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Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: December's breaking records

Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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@roanoke.com

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Monday was another abnormally warm -- try ridiculously warm -- December day.

Usually, when a record high temperature is established for a given date, the temperature slips past the old record by a degree or two. But Monday's high temperature in Roanoke of 73 beat the old record by 5 degrees.

And that's not even the biggest margin this month between a new record high and an old one. On Dec. 1, the high of 77 topped the old record by 6 degrees.

Clearly, we have been in a warm-weather pattern since the second week of November, excluding the one short but sharp cold snap in early December. This warm pattern follows a September-October period that was cooler than normal.

Though there are subtle signals of change, it appears likely that we'll end December mostly mild. Until something moves enough to pull the trigger on driving Arctic chill into the eastern United States, we'll stay mild.

In a year when nine of 12 months have been above normal in temperature, it should not be surprising that the number of daily warm-weather records broken or tied in 2006 outpaced the number of daily cool-weather records by a ratio of more than 3-to-1.

Monday was the 10th record high tied or broken this year at Roanoke Regional Airport. In addition, 11 records have been set or tied for the highest low temperatures recorded on given dates.

That adds up to 21 records for highest highs or lows in 2006, compared to only six records for lowest highs or lows.

On five days in 2006, the high temperature was the lowest on record for the date. Only once in 2006, on Nov. 4, the low temperature was the lowest recorded for the date.

Records in 2006 include the highest temperature in seven years, 99 on Aug. 2, and coming within 1 degree and 2 degrees of Roanoke's all-time record for highest low temperature on consecutive nights -- 77 on Aug. 3 and 76 on Aug. 4. The highest low in Roanoke's weather history, dating to 1948, is 78 on July 7, 1977.

A few times before in this column, I've noted the decided upturn in the frequency of records for highest overnight lows at Roanoke during the past 15 years or so, while the frequency of lowest overnight low records has dwindled sharply.

The number of high temperature records, for warm or cool weather, has not shown a discernible trend in Roanoke, so having so many record highs in 2006 is an aberration.

Picking apart the why and how of so many warm-weather records in 2006 could be the subject of a doctoral dissertation and difficult to cover in a few paragraphs of a newspaper weather column.

I won't try to do that now, but it is a subject that I probably should return to, as 2006 is expected to finish as the third warmest year on record in the continental United States.

2006 Daily Temperature Records
Record temperatures set or tied this year at Roanoke Regional Airport, listed with date, temperature and previous record.
High maximums
The highest  high temperatures recorded for a given date.
Jan. 9 66  (66, 1949)
April 6 86  (85, 2001)
May 29 93  (91, 1999)
May 30 93  (93, 1969)
June 22 97  (95, 1988)
Aug 2 99  (98, 1955)
Nov. 10 78  (75, 1975)
Nov. 11 79  (77, 1985)
Dec. 1 77  (71, 2001)
Dec. 18 73  (68, 1990)
Low maximums
The lowest  high temperatures recorded for a given date.
May 8 55  (56, 1978)
Sept 1 65  (66, 1986)
Sept 12 63  (64, 1985)
Oct 23 49  (51, 2004)
Oct. 24 46  (46, 1981)
Low minimums
The lowest  low temperature recorded for a given date.
Nov. 4 24  (25, 1991)
High Minimums
The highest  low temperatures recorded for a given date.
March 10 54      (53, 2000)
April 13 61  (61, 1994)
April 21 62  (62, 1957)
July 13 72  (72, 2004)
Aug. 2 74  (71, 2004)
Aug. 3 77  (73, 1980)
Aug. 4 76  (74, 1987)
Aug. 5 75  (75, 1987)
Aug. 6 71  (71, 1981)
Aug. 28 71  (71, 1991)
Aug. 29 72  (72, 1960)
Source: National Weather Service

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