Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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• Sprinkles or flurries possible Tuesday, but maybe something bigger for the weekend?
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• Coldest morning of winter so far likely across much of Southwest Virginia; Tuesday precipitation looking doubtful
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Current Forecast Track of Hurricane Charley: www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0304W+GIF/120913W.gif

National Weather Service, Blacksburg: www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/

3:20 update: There is a numbing feeling when you know a catastrophic weather event is ongoing.

Hurricane Charley has exploded to a Category 4 storm today with 145 mph winds. Its eye is nearing landfall between Sarasota and Fort Myers, Florida. The good news in that is that the heavily populated Tampa Bay area will likely be spared the ultimate nightmare, though it will get lots of high winds and heavy rain. But a hurricane gradually moving inland along Florida’s west coast will be destructive and potentially deadly wherever it comes in at.

This will likely be the worst hurricane in property damage since Andrew ripped just south of Miami on the other side of the state in 1992. It’s certainly the strongest landfalling U.S. hurricane since then.

The new fear on Charley is that he crosses Florida and re-emerges in the Atlantic to re-strengthen. Hurricane warnings are now up for parts of the north Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts in anticipation of this possibility.

For us? The bulk of Charley probably goes east of us, but his circulation will throw back some moisture against the mountains and the pesky cold front for some rain, which could be heavy at times.

Keep an eye on it though. These things seem to have minds of their own sometimes.

Friday morning:

AUDIO

Hear a report on Hurricane Charley's progress from George Hutchens of the Citrus County Chronicle in Crystal River, Fla. Audio is courtesy of the Chronicle and Virginian-Pilot, sister publications to The Roanoke Times.

The big focus today will be on the Florida coast as Hurricane Charley, having crossed Cuba in the early morning hours, continues heading north toward a rendezvous quite likely with the Tampa area.

However, the interaction of Tropical Storm Bonnie’s remnants and a slow-moving cold front did leave its mark on Virginia on Thursday, even though the rains weren’t what was feared in this area.

Danville suffered severe damage from what apparently was a tornado, as these photos attest. Doppler radar had indicated a circulation in thunderstorms approaching Danville early Thursday evening, and a tornado warning was issued for the area. A National Weather Service team will be headed to Danville today to study the damage to determine if it was in fact caused by a tornado.

A Wendy's sign was blown down on Riverside Drive during the wind and rain strom that hit the west portion of the city on Thursday. AP Photo

The spin of a tropical system on its northeast side often rotates across the grain, so to speak, blowing from east or northeast while winds aloft are out of the northwest or southwest. This crossing of winds is called “shear” and it can help spawn smaller vortexes of spin in thunderstorms that we know as tornadoes. Danville was to the northeast of Bonnie’s track on Thursday, but the storms that caused damage there were probably more attributable to the strong cold front cutting into warm, moist air than they were direct effects of Bonnie.

Today’s scenario in Florida is numbing. If Charley is a Category 3 storm with winds near 120 mph moving northeast to Tampa Bay or just north of there, as many forecasts reflect, he will carry an enormous storm surge into Tampa Bay. This is a scenario emergency manager’s have dreaded for years, as downtown Tampa could be flooded. The direct effects could be farther north or south, of course, but the Charley’s north-northeast angle could cause it to drag along the west Florida coast raking many areas. This could be a very bad day.

Marshall's on Riverside Drive in Danville suffered heavy damage from the storm AP Photo

Then, Charley will continue up the eastern U.S., probably a bit inland, which will keep him from recharging. However, he’ll carry gusty winds and a lot of rain north with him. It’ll be another bout of heavy rain for many areas that don’t need it. Roanoke is probably on the western fringe of the area most in line for Charley’s rains. Bonnie’s rains went east of us, mostly; Charley may follow suit. Again, tornadoes will be a possibility with Charley once inland, though primarily to the east and northeast of the storm’s center where the most shear is occurring.

Beyond Charley, we should expect 2 or 3 fall-like days before a gradual return to a typical summer pattern – not especially hot, just average. We can take that for a while, I’m sure.