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Wednesday, August 11, 2004

Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: 1-2 tropical punch

Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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It is exceedingly rare to have two tropical systems affecting a similar area in so short a time. But that is what we are likely to see as Tropical Storms Bonnie and Charley -- at least one of which and possibly both of which will probably become hurricanes -- take aim on western Florida and then head inland as rainmakers up the East Coast.

Bonnie is finally looking like something this morning in the Gulf with 50 mph winds. Charley is up to 65 mph winds in the Caribbean near Jamaica and is strengthening. (Look at the twin puffballs in this satellite pix: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html)

Each of them in turn are going to get caught up in the Eastern U.S. low pressure trough aloft, which will turn them to the northeast, speed them up and eventually drag them up the East Coast.

Bonnie will probably come inland over northwest Florida on Thursday and stay inland after that, its winds weakening but quite possibly providing a dose of heavy rain for many areas. (See Bonnie's projected track here: www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT02/refresh/AL0204W5+GIF/111008W5.gif)


Charley, the most likely of the two to become a hurricane, will probably hit near Tampa or south of there on Friday and may cross the Florida peninsula into the Atlantic. If it does, it may have a chance to re-strengthen before a second landfall in the Carolinas. (See Charley's projected track here: www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0304W+GIF/111008W.gif)

Both systems are going to bring wads of tropical moisture north, and for us, that quite likely means a wetter weekend than we were bargaining for.

It's an unusual scenario indeed. This is what I get for suggesting on Monday that the tropical season could be less active because of El Nino.

For more on Bonnie, Charley and the 2004 tropical season, click to the National Hurricane Center/ Tropical Prediction Center site at www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

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