Kevin Myatt

Latest entries from the Weather Journal blog

• Weather Journal remains on break
• Coastal low prompts Southwest Virginia flooding
• Hurricane Ida: Something extraordinary may be happening

About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

Will the record warm pace continue?

Your perception of what a "heat wave" is varies greatly depending on what part of the country you grew up in. But based on this area's long-term averages, we have entered another period that could legitimately be called a heat wave.

We're about halfway through the month of August, and on a pace to establish a record for average lowest temperature for the second month in a row -- if the sticky overnight lows continue. Our daily highs are also decidedly on the hot end of history, so far this month.

Through Monday morning, the average low temperature for the month of August at Roanoke Regional Airport has been 69.3 degrees. Sunday's low of 73 degrees tied Roanoke's record for warmest Aug. 14 low temperature.

Over the previous 56 years of record-keeping, dating to 1948, the average August low temperature for August was 64.1 degrees at the airport.

The warmest August average low on record is 68.06 in 1995, according to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

Recall that in July, Roanoke's average low temperature was 69.5 degrees, a half-degree above the previous record for warmest average low in July and about 4 degrees above the long-term average.

July's daytime highs were a degree below average, but August's highs are also on a pace that could challenge records, should the warmth continue through the month. We've exceeded 90 on 8 of the first 14 days of the month, including three days at 94 and one at 95.

Through Monday, the average high temperature for the month of August is 89.8 degrees. The long-term average for the month is 85.3 degrees. If the month ended Monday, it would rank as the third highest August average high temperature on record, trailing only 1959 (90.61 degrees) and 1983 (89.9 degrees).

But that's just it: The month isn't over. And usually, but not always, it starts getting a bit cooler as we slide down the back end of August toward the start of meteorological fall on Sept. 1.

This weekend marked a significant turning point in the national weather scheme, though it came at a deadly cost. The first really fall-like cold front dived out of Canada, triggering severe weather from the Rockies eastward to New England as it collided with hot, humid air.

A tornado touched down in Wright, Wyoming, causing widespread devastation and killing two people. It also snowed in Wyoming's mountains after the front went by, the first widespread snow in that region in a few months.

This front, like so many before it, is struggling to move through our area, though it could be enough to cause a few more thunderstorms the next few days as it interacts with the hot, humid air in place.

Temperatures should also back off a bit by mid-week as the front will probably get a little south of us before stalling out. This would help trim back our average temperatures.

The weather map shows a series of high pressure areas lined up across Canada toward the Arctic circle, pushing cold fronts southward. The shoving match between Canada and the Caribbean, between the tundra and the tropics, has begun.

It's a battle over the next two weeks to see if the hot air can hold on long enough to rewrite our August record books -- more through persistent warmth than extreme heat -- or whether fall's cooler air will start winning enough battles to skew the averages downward.

My bet would be that we get enough cooler air and storm-spawning fronts in the upcoming days to keep this from being a record August, but not enough to keep it from being a warmer-than-average August.