Monday, August 22, 2011
Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: It;s a dead heat among4 in prediction contest
KYLE GREEN The Roanoke Times
Patrick Henry High School football player Ben Mesadieu blows off water he had sprayed on his head during a break from practice early this month.
Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.
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It is unlikely with the current weather pattern that Roanoke will get anywhere close to 99 degrees again this month.
So, in all likelihood, the second Weather Journal summer forecast contest has been decided - if you can call a four-way tie decided.
Jamison Shabanowitz of Blacksburg, David S. Bowers of Roanoke (not the mayor), Tony Smith of Roanoke County and Ronald Wilson of Rocky Mount, each have four points in the lowest-score-wins contest.
Just one point back from the leaders is 8-year-old Juliana Bleecker. Her older sister Jennifer won the first summer contest last year, and her family always seems to be in contention in both my winter and summer contests.
Roanoke's highest temperature this summer was 99degrees, occurring on both July21 and July 29.
Contestants were asked to send in their best guesses on Roanoke's highest temperature for the summer - June1 to Aug. 31, by meteorological definition - and on what date that would occur. Each entry is scored on the number of degrees missed multiplied by 3 added to the number of days missed. The temperature misses are graded harder because the historical range of Roanoke's highest summer temperature - 91 to 105 - is much narrower than the 92days making up meteorological summer.
With the highest temperature having been reached on two dates, I counted whichever was closest to each entrant's guess.
Three of the four leaders were a day off one of the two dates and a degree off on the temperature. Bowers and Shabanowitz each picked July28, with Bowers picking 98 degrees and Shabanowitz 100. Smith went with July 22 and 98 degrees.
Wilson took a different route to his four points - he was exactly right on the temperature at 99, but four days off of the first date, picking July 17.
Bleecker picked 98 degrees and July 23, putting her 1degree off and two days off, for a total of five points. Eight others among the 34 entrants scored fewer than 10 points.
The contest isn't over until Aug. 31, so there is a small chance the results could change - very small, looking at how unlikely we are to see extreme heat from here on out.
Tropical Storm Irene
Tropical Storm Irene formed east of the Antilles on Saturday.
Pay close attention to this one - forecast models have been consistent in bringing it toward Florida by next weekend and then carrying its remnants northward toward us a day or two later.
There's plenty of time for any or all of that to change, but if you have travel plans in the East Coast or Gulf Coast states next weekend, be aware.
Kevin Myatt's column runsMonday, Wednesday and Friday.
