Friday, July 29, 2011
Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Roanoke's streak of 90-degree days likely to reach 11, or more
Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.
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I made a comparison in a recent column between weather statistics and baseball statistics.
Both are fond of streaks. This summer has been full of hot streaks.
Washington, D.C., (Reagan National Airport) set a record with four consecutive days when the temperature failed to get below 80 degrees, day or night, from Thursday, July 21, through the following Sunday. Fort Smith, Ark., is on a record 23-day streak -- and counting -- with highs at or above 100 degrees. Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport could tie its second-longest streak of 100-degree days at 29 on Saturday -- if Tropical Storm Don doesn't interfere. More on that later.
But the home team has its own streak. Roanoke had its ninth consecutive day at or above 90 degrees Thursday, with a high of 97.
That makes this the longest stretch of consecutive days with highs at or above 90 degrees since the August 2007 blast furnace reeled off 17 in a row. That was tied with a run in 1959 for Roanoke's second-longest on record; 1966 had a stretch of 22 straight days with highs at or above 90.
It is likely that Roanoke will make it to at least 11 days, as today and Saturday are projected to be well above 90. The elusive 100-degree mark is possible today.
Sunday appears to be the weak link in the chain of possible 90-degree days.
A slow-moving cold front will move into our region, kicking up numerous showers and storms as it bumps into the heat and humidity.
If Roanoke manages a 90-degree high through the increased clouds and showers Sunday, then a rebuilding high pressure system next week will likely result in several days with highs above 90. And that would push the 90-degree streak into the teens, which would be historic territory, among the longest on record in the past century.
Tropical Storm Don
Texans may be rooting harder to get hit by a tropical system than anyone ever has.
With three-quarters of the state in exceptional drought -- the U.S. Drought Monitor's highest level of dryness -- and 90 percent of the state in at least extreme drought, the second highest level, rain is welcome most any way it comes.
Tropical Storm Don could be a wonderful gift for some Texans, as it's not expected to become a destructive hurricane and is making a beeline for the Texas coast, with its remnants expected to drive far inland.
But it is expected to be a relatively small storm spreading only a narrow swath of 2-to-4-inch rains in the southern half of the state. It may scatter some showers and storms farther north, and perhaps enough cloudiness to stop Dallas' 100-degree streak. Maybe.
It will have no direct effect on us, but rainfall for any portion of that drought zone may help in a tiny way with the "heat dome" that keeps recharging over the arid regions of the Southern Plains and expanding eastward toward us.
It will take much more than Don to solve either Texas' drought or the recurring central and eastern U.S. heat wave.
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