Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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Hurricanes are on the increase in the Atlantic. That's the gist of several reports this week.

Earlier this week, the National Hurricane Center in Miami boosted its Atlantic tropical season forecast to 18-21 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 5-7 major hurricanes (111 mph winds or greater). The original forecast was for 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes.

Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University, considered one of the nation's foremost hurricane forecasting experts, is expected to release a report with similar heightened expectations on Friday.

This might be viewed similarly to a situation where the forecast calls for 2-4 inches of snow, but there's already 3 on the ground with many hours of snow to go. Naturally, the forecast must go upward based on what has happened and what is happening. We are at an unprecedented pace of eight named storms already in the Atlantic, with Tropical Storm Harvey spinning around near Bermuda and the possibility of a new depression developing soon in the southern North Atlantic.

But perhaps of broader importance and more controversy is a study by Massachusetts Institute of Technology climatologist Kerry Emanuel that indicated that hurricanes in both the Pacific and Atlantic are increasing in intensity and duration since the 1970s, and these trends are correlated to upward spikes in global ocean and atmospheric temperatures that many scientists believe are human-induced.

The way science progresses is that a study like this is made, and then other experts in related fields ask lots of questions about it and criticize its weaknesses, and further studies fill in the holes or answer lingering questions that strengthen or weaken the original hypothesis.

That process is already beginning. One of the immediate questions that is raised is whether the period of time tested is sufficiently long enough to establish a trend. Forty years may seem like a long time compared to our lifetimes, but against atmospheric and planetary history, it's a blip.

Also, is the increased strength and duration noted just a function of greater ability to track storms in the age of satellite, airplane reconnaisance and instant communication, rather than an actual increase in the storms themselves? And is the strengthening just part of a natural oscillation in hurricane activity over decades, as has been observed and well-documented, rather than influenced by any warming that many believe is induced by human activity?

Interestingly, the study showed no increase in the number of hurricanes, and that would raise the simple question: Why not?

In one of his earlier forecast releases this year, hurricane expert Dr. Gray stridently rebutted speculation that Florida's quadruple pounding in the 2004 hurricane season was somehow a sign of human-induced warming.

In his May 31 report, Gray writes: "If global warming were the cause of the increase in United States hurricane landfalls in 2004 and the overall increase in Atlantic basin major hurricane activity of the past 10 years (1995-2004), one would expect to see an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the other storm basins as well (ie.,West Pacific, East Pacific, Indian Ocean, etc.). This has not occurred.

"When tropical cyclones worldwide are summed, there has actually been a slight decrease since 1995."

And on it goes.

Though it's no comfort to someone whose beach house is destroyed, hurricanes are an indication that the atmosphere is still working in its ability to take heat out of the atmosphere, dissipating it and spreading it out, however much or little heat there is and regardless of how it's getting there.