Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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• A second “preseason” named tropical system may soon form off Southeast U.S. coast
• Headed for a hot Memorial Day weekend, after a day or two more of scattered downpours
• UPDATE 6:30 AM, 5/23: More showers and storms on Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday; time to enter summer prediction contest
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The atmospheric pattern is going to cut a doughnut right over our head.

A "cut-off" low-pressure system is expected to form this weekend. That means the counterclockwise wind flow high in the atmosphere will separate from the jet stream winds, and the low will sit and spin almost in the same place for several days.

Waves of Gulf of Mexico and perhaps Atlantic moisture will circulate into the region over and over again, and that of course means rain.

The most widespread rain is likely to occur on Saturday. But showers and some thunderstorms will be in the forecast through the foreseeable future, well into next week, as the low continues to spin 'round and 'round while only slowly drifting eastward or northeastward.

It will be rather warm and sticky under the cut-off low, unlike some similar events that trap cooler air. But that warmth and stickiness could lead to some strong thunderstorms at times, especially when there is just enough sunshine between rainy periods to warm the atmosphere a bit more beneath the colder air higher up.

So it looks like we'll be stuck under a wet whirligig for most of the next week. It won't rain continuously, but it will rain plenty.

A close call

There was a sizzle, a bright flash, and a loud "KA-BAMMMMM."

And I ran back inside.

The Roanoke Times' roof garden has long been an ideal spot for me to observe weather, with its expansive views to the west and north. I was watching storms approach from the northwest Wednesday evening, and had already seen a few cloud-to-ground lightning bolts.

But this time I let it get too close to me.

Lightning is a deadly serious issue. Don't let it sneak up on you.

Weather Journal runs on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.