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Monday, March 22, 2010

Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Cold winter puts severe weather season on ice

Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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Severe weather season is off to a very slow start in the United States.

Through Sunday, there were only 55 tornado reports since the start of the year. January through March have averaged more than 200 tornado reports in the past three years. It appears the last 10 days of March won't close that gap much.

Virginia, through Sunday, had yet to have a single severe weather report (a tornado, hail 1 inch or larger, or thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater) in the first 80 days of 2010. While our severe weather usually peaks in late spring and summer, it's unusual to have had no severe reports at all by this time.

The reason for the relative lack of severe weather is simple: frequent and long-lasting cold air masses that plunged into the Gulf of Mexico repeatedly through the winter months.

Not only did those cold air masses put the storm track very far to the south, but the Arctic air also chilled the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Air moving northward off the Gulf holds less warmth and less moisture than it would if water temperatures were higher.

But severe weather season delayed is not necessarily severe weather season denied.

In coming days and weeks, the Gulf waters will gradually warm. Also, a continued parade of storm systems from the Pacific Ocean is likely to march across the southern U.S. with little chance of prolonged outbreaks of Arctic air.

A snowy winter will melt into what could yet become a stormy spring across much of the nation.

Weather Journal runs on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

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