Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

kevin.myatt
@roanoke.com
981-3341

Weather with Kevin Myatt

Recent columns

• We got graupel, but not on official record
• Moisture could get caught up in cold blast
• Forecast for Weather Journal: Partly print, with frequent Internet
• Column archive

Read the Weather Journal blog

• Sprinkles or flurries possible Tuesday, but maybe something bigger for the weekend?
• For now, it looks like a quiet, mostly mild week ahead for SW Virginia
• Coldest morning of winter so far likely across much of Southwest Virginia; Tuesday precipitation looking doubtful
• Weather Journal blog

#swvawx on Twitter

@KevinMyattWx

• Follow Kevin on Twitter at @KevinMyattWx

As the snowfall contest entries continue to roll in, (now more than 150 of them), I am noticing the same trend I did a year ago.

Youngsters, as a whole, don't pick big snowfall totals.

The reason, I think, is simple: They can't really remember a big-snowfall winter in Southwest Virginia.

Older folks, who remember the consistently snowy '60s and '70s, and the more sporadically snowy '80s and early to mid-'90s, are more likely to project a winter with more than 30 inches of snow. They know it can happen, even though it hasn't recently.

It's rare to discuss Southwest Virginia winters on my weather blog without someone bringing up what I call "the snow gap." It started with the 1996-97 winter.

In 1995-96, three widespread foot-deep snowstorms pushed Roanoke's snow total to 56 inches and Blacksburg's to 75 inches.

Since then, only one winter, 2002-03, has been slightly above long-term averages in snowfall. There has been no single storm that left a foot or more across most of the area since early February 1996.

The past three winters have been anemic for snow lovers, "one-hit wonders" with only one fairly large, widespread snowfall across Southwest Virginia each winter. Roanoke hasn't officially cracked 5 inches for total seasonal snowfall in any of those three.

But once upon a time, there was another "snow gap." That one started at least as early as 1947, when the modern era of records began at Roanoke Regional Airport (formerly Woodrum Field), and continued until very early in 1960.

The numbers were very similar in that time span. Only one winter had above average snowfall. Five winters had less than 10 inches of snow.

A Roanoke fourth-grader in 1959 would have just as difficult a time imagining the nearly 5 feet of snow that fell in February and March of 1960 as a similar-aged student now would if those car-burying piles of snow started happening in early 2010.

Cycles are hard to discern when we're in the midst of them.

Only time will tell whether the 1997-2009 period is the start of the "new normal" for Southwest Virginia winters, or whether it's more like 1947-1959, a pattern that will be someday be a quirk -- maybe even a few weeks from now.

Contest ends tonight

There is still time left to enter the snowfall prediction contest, but only today and this evening. I must have your entries by midnight.

I need (1) your name, (2) location of residence (town, city or section of a county ... school affiliation is fine if you're a student), (3) your predicted date of first 1-inch or greater snowfall for Roanoke; (4) predicted total seasonal snowfall for Roanoke; (5) predicted date of first 1-inch or greater snowfall for Blacksburg; (6) total seasonal snowfall for Blacksburg. E-mail that to weather@roanoke.com.

The season we're counting for this forecast is from Nov. 15 to April 15. It seems to be a safe bet with the fairly mild pattern ahead that there won't be any significant snow in our area before Nov. 15.

The contest is mostly for pride, as the winner (calculated by adding the number of missed inches and missed days, the lowest score winning) will be recognized in Weather Journal for his/her forecasting prowess. There will also be some Roanoke Times-related stuff for the winner.

Taking time off

Weather Journal will be taking a lengthy break until Nov. 27 as I attend to some family matters.