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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Snowfall contest is a little tougher this year

Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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On Friday, I will be introducing the second Weather Journal snowfall prediction contest.

But today, I will give you a heads-up on a new wrinkle in the contest.

This time, you will be asked to guess the date of the first 1-inch snowfall and the total inches of snow for the season not only for Roanoke Regional Airport (technically, snowfall is measured at nearby WDBJ, Channel 7), but also for the National Weather Service office at Blacksburg.

One reason I'm adding Blacksburg is out of respect for the many readers I have in the New River Valley and Virginia Tech communities who visit my blog and often correspond.

Another reason is that snowfall solely at Roanoke doesn't give a complete view of the region. It's not practical to include several sites across the area, but the two major reporting stations -- separated by 35 miles and more than 1,000 feet in elevation -- should make for a challenging contest that better represents the region.

It will make the contest harder.

Blacksburg usually gets more snow than Roanoke -- but not always. For instance, according to Southeast Regional Climate Center records, Roanoke got more snow than Blacksburg in three consecutive winters in the frigid late 1970s, and in 1982-83. (Some years are blurry on this point because of missing data at one or both sites.)

The first 1-inch snow can be on the same date for both sites or many weeks apart. Last winter was an extreme, with Blacksburg's first 1-inch snow on Nov. 17 and Roanoke's not until March 1.

Don't send your guesses in yet; just be thinking about it. The contest entry period will start Friday and run through Nov. 6.

Weather Journal appears on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

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