Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Atlantic hurricane season hangs by a thread
Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.
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Atlantic hurricane season still has a weak pulse.
Monday saw the unusual development of a tropical storm in the far northeast Atlantic, a few hundred miles southwest of Ireland.
That's right: Ireland.
It's unusual for the National Hurricane Center to use Cork, Ireland, and Brest, France, as reference points in an official discussion about the location and track of a tropical storm. But that was the case for short-lived Tropical Storm Grace, which peaked at 65 mph sustained winds before being absorbed into a large, nontropical low pressure system and cold front.
Another area of disturbed weather in a more common area for tropical development -- the central Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands -- spun up into Tropical Storm Henri on Tuesday evening. But the upper-level wind flow is unlikely to let this get anywhere close to the United States.
Overall, the Atlantic tropical season is living up to the expectations of an El Nino pattern. The warming of central Pacific waters that defines El Nino often leads to increased storminess in the Pacific while intensifying upper-level westerly winds that tends to obstruct tropical development in the Atlantic.
The season doesn't end until the end of November, but most seasons that produce a U.S. hurricane landfall in October or November have already produced at least one in August or September.
It's not over till it's over, but it's quite possible for the U.S. that this hurricane season never really began.
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