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Friday, August 28, 2009

Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Cold front likely to outmuscle tropical system

Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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There is a tropical system off the East Coast and a cold front from Canada pressing our way from the northwest.

Sound familiar? The weather map was very similar this time a week ago.

Tropical Storm Danny is much closer to the East Coast than was Hurricane Bill last weekend, but it's also much weaker and less organized.

The cold front gliding down from Canada is much stronger than the one that struggled through early this week. It will become a much bigger player in our weather than Danny when it presses through about Sunday.

Danny might make it to hurricane strength, but probably only barely, before becoming more of an extratropical low pressure system as it's rapidly swept northeastward by strong winds aloft.

Its most likely track has it passing just off of the Outer Banks by early Saturday and then scraping Cape Cod and Maine over the weekend.

An upper-level low moving northeast from the Gulf Coast will likely bring us some showers and thunderstorms today and Saturday, while at the same time nudging Danny away. So Southwest Virginia's direct effects from the tropical system are likely to be minimal to nil.

We didn't get any impact from Bill last week, but it did play a role in keeping a cold front from pressing all the way through.

The last cold front brought only a brief respite from what passes for hot weather in what has been a mild summer.

After a day or two with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s early this week, we were back to the mid- and upper 80s by midweek. The last cold front stalled and eventually dissipated just a little east of us, so it never really pushed the humidity out.

The coming front should be much different, with a solid push of cool, dry air behind it likely shoving it into the Atlantic. Do not be surprised to see some lows in the 40s by Tuesday morning in the deeper rural valleys. Lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s will be widespread across Southwest Virginia early next week.

The overall weather pattern that made July among the coolest on record in much of the central, northern and eastern U.S. continues to re-establish itself, with the jet stream dipping deep to the south.

If this pattern sets up for the next few weeks, as there are some indications it will, it is likely to continue deflecting tropical systems away from the United States and allowing autumn to settle in very early.

On the meteorological calendar, autumn begins Tuesday, the first day of September. On the meteorological map, it looks to be right on time.

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