Monday, August 03, 2009
Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Hurricane season still in early days
Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.
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As we begin August, there have yet to be any hurricanes or tropical storms in the Atlantic.
Really, that's not a big deal.
According to National Hurricane Center statistics, the average date for the season's first hurricane is Aug. 14. Also, on average, only one named tropical storm has formed by Aug. 1.
A lack of early activity is not necessarily a harbinger of an inactive Atlantic hurricane season.
In 2004, the season's first named storm, Alex, didn't form until July 31, then became a hurricane on Aug. 3. That season went on to produce five hurricane strikes on the U.S. coast with Charley, Frances, Gaston, Ivan and Jeanne. The remnants of three of those storms -- Frances, Ivan and Jeanne -- had a major impact on Southwest Virginia's weather with floods and tornadoes.
Most other recent years have had early tropical development in the Atlantic basin, perhaps heightening our expectations for tropical systems in June and July. By this time a year ago, there had already been two hurricanes and two tropical storms.
However, by itself, the fact that there have not yet been any tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic doesn't mean much.
Atlantic hurricanes tend to hit their stride over the next six to eight weeks. Let's hold off a bit on making any bold characterizations of what the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will become.
