Kevin Myatt

Latest entries from the Weather Journal blog

• Weather Journal taking a long break
• Yes, there's still an Atlantic tropical season going on
• Freezing temperatures likely tonight

About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

La Nina never quite matured

La Nina is no more, or didn't quite make it, depending on how you look at it.

La Nina conditions existed for several months, as sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific averaged more than half a degree Celsius below normal since late fall.

But to officially qualify as a La Nina event, it must average half a degree below normal for five consecutive three-month periods. It made it to four, but with sea surface temperatures now near normal to even slightly above normal, the March-May period will almost certainly fall a little below that threshold.

La Nina has a loose correlation with mild to warm, dry weather across much of the southern half of the United States. Severe drought conditions developed in much of the Southeast, southern Appalachians and mid-Atlantic during the past two years, when La Nina conditions were common, but have recently been relieved in most areas by spring rains.

The equatorial Pacific is now considered to be "neutral," meaning there is neither a La Nina nor an El Nino. Forecasts suggest neutral conditions will continue through the summer, but after that, it is possible the Pacific will move toward a warm El Nino cycle. El Nino loosely correlates with fewer Atlantic hurricanes in the fall, and a wet winter in much of the U.S.

I say "loosely correlates" because, when it comes to weather, there is never only one factor at work. Always be skeptical when anyone blames any kind of weather on a lone factor.