Kevin Myatt

Latest entries from the Weather Journal blog

• Weather Journal taking a long break
• Yes, there's still an Atlantic tropical season going on
• Freezing temperatures likely tonight

About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

Summer makes a late-April visit to the region

In a year that's already given us a snowstorm-to-80s flip-flop within a week, perhaps a flurries-to-90 change in four days won't seem that ridiculous.

That could be on tap this week.

Many locations in the New River Valley and the higher elevations saw snow flurries on Wednesday. By Saturday, widespread temperatures in the 80s are likely, and a 90-degree reading here or there won't be impossible for the Roanoke Valley and points eastward.

For many weeks, we have had amazingly "normal" spring weather, with temperatures mostly near average and light to moderate rains arriving on a regular schedule every three to five days.

But now, we are in the midst of another winter to summer jump akin to the one that took us from widespread snow cover to the low 80s between March 1 and March 7.

The weather pattern responsible for the warming trend likely to last well into next week is textbook midsummer.

Strong high pressure is building at the surface and aloft over the eastern United States. Think of it as a mound of stable, warm air at all layers of the atmosphere, deflecting storm systems away from the region and allowing persistent warming at the surface.

In summer, we often call these strong high pressure systems heat domes, with the expectation of many days or weeks of hot, hazy and mostly dry weather.

It's not summer, though, it's still spring. So the jet stream has not retreated to Canada, but is still active over the continental United States, although it will mostly be routed west and north of us by this large heat dome.

In time, the fast-moving river of air aloft will push cold fronts against the heat dome, eroding it. By the middle to latter part of next week, it is possible that a cold front will break through to end or at least temper the summerlike hot spell.

But before then, expect several mostly sunny days with highs in the 80s.

While the large high pressure system will act to deflect organized storm systems, and the stable air aloft will retard most clouds and precipitation, summerlike heat can bubble up a few scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

That may happen this weekend, particularly along ridgelines, where differences in surface temperatures with elevation create boundaries along which storms can form. It's exactly what happens many afternoons in July and August.

So don't rule out a rumble of thunder, a localized but short-lived downpour or a stormy puff of wind this weekend, as the heat may be sufficient even with limited moisture to drive a few thunderheads high into the sky. But most folks won't experience that.

Roanoke's record highs for April 25 to 27 are 95, 93 and 95, respectively. Those are not likely to be broken. Blacksburg's records for those dates are 88, 86 and 90, respectively, which are also probably a little high to be broken, though 86 on Sunday wouldn't be out of the question.

At the peak of summer's heat in late July and early August, Roanoke's normal high is 88, while Blacksburg's is 83.

Although the calendar still whispers to us that it's only April, the thermometer this weekend will shout that it's July.