Kevin Myatt

Latest entries from the Weather Journal blog

• Sunday afternoon showers possible, but heavier rain likely overnight into Monday
• Sunnier, slowly warming weather on the way
• How about some uneventful weather for a change?

About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

Youngsters sweep snowfall prediction contest

Austin Broyles had one strategy in mind entering the Weather Journal snowfall prediction contest: pick a late date.

"I guessed February, that's the month most of the time when it snows, toward the middle and end of February," the Lord Botetourt High School freshman said.

His reasoning was sound, at least in recent years. Since he was in fifth grade, there had only been one really significant areawide snowfall in Southwest Virginia each winter, and three of the four were in February: Feb. 28, 2005; Feb. 13, 2006; and Feb. 6, 2007. (Jan. 16, 2008, was the other.)

This odd winter of frequent sharp cold snaps but few wet storm systems almost procrastinated itself out of any meaningful snow in the Roanoke Valley. The first snowfall of at least 1 inch, as measured at Roanoke's official snow measurement site, the WDBJ (Channel 7) studio on Hershberger Road in Northwest Roanoke, didn't occur until March 1. That was part of an almost 4-inch snow over three days (0.3 on Feb. 28, 2.1 on March 1, 1.5 on March 2) officially for Roanoke, though 5 to 10 inches fell on most of Southwest Virginia, including many other parts of the Roanoke Valley.

Austin chose the latest date of all 211 pickers who responded to my call for snowfall guesses way back in November. He selected Feb. 13 for the season's first 1-inch snow in Roanoke.

His 16-day miss on the season's first 1-inch snow, combined with a 6-inch miss on Roanoke's official seasonal snowfall total (he guessed 10 inches, 4.4 inches was measured, rounding to 4) gave him 22 points, adding the 16 and 6 together. That was good enough for a two-point win over Faith Christian seventh-grader Brittan Wilcox and a nine-point margin over Wasena Elementary first-grader Charlie Murphy in the lowest-score-wins contest.

No one else was even close, including scores of grownups who got dusted by the youngsters. About half of the contestants were from several entire classrooms whose guesses were submitted by their teachers, primarily at Lord Botetourt and Faith Christian.

"I was intrigued about snowfall," said Douglas Bleecker, Austin's earth science teacher, who submitted three blocks of students into the contest. "The kids want to get out of school. It's a great opportunity to get involved, a real-life application."

Bleecker said the lack of snowfall much of the season played on his students' nerves.

"You could tell the anxiety," Bleecker said. "They're almost biologically programmed for a day or two off in January."

The three young men each picked February dates for the season's first 1-inch snow, the only entrants to do so. Brittan selected Feb. 5 for the first 1-inch snow, putting him 24 days off. Charlie chose Feb. 10 for the first 1-inch snowfall, 19 days off the mark.

Everyone else picked dates ranging from November to January, the bulk landing in December.

Brittan nailed Roanoke's official seasonal snowfall total measured at WDBJ, guessing 4 inches. Ironically, if the measuring stick had been at Brittan's school in southern Roanoke County, the snowfall tally would have been about twice as much, closer to Austin's guess.

Charlie picked 16 inches, and was hoping for an 11-inch March miracle to pull out the victory.

Austin seemed a little surprised it didn't happen. "I thought one of the kids at one of the elementary schools would pass me," he said.

"When it started snowing outside, I was thinking 'Uh oh, this might be it.'"

Austin, Brittan and Charlie will each receive a Roanoke Times prize packet for their outstanding prognostication.

I want to do this again next winter. I'd like to get it rolling a little earlier, in October, with Nov. 1 to April 15 as the contest period. Next winter, I definitely want to include Blacksburg's first 1-inch snowfall and seasonal snow total in the contest, too, so that the New River Valley folks feel more personally invested in it, and just to make it a little harder for everyone.

With this, we wrap up winter 2008-09 in Weather Journal.

It's spring now. Storm chase 2009 heads out a month from today.