Monday, March 09, 2009
Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Youth lead the way at guessing snowfall
Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.
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- Sprinkles or flurries possible Tuesday, but maybe something bigger for the weekend?
- For now, it looks like a quiet, mostly mild week ahead for SW Virginia
- Coldest morning of winter so far likely across much of Southwest Virginia; Tuesday precipitation looking doubtful
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Snow prediction isn't a game for grown-ups, apparently.
Here are the current standings in the snowfall contest I launched in November. The scoring method is adding the number of days off the guess for the first 1-inch snowfall (which was March 1) to the number of inches off the guess for total snowfall (which is currently 4 inches, rounded from 4.4 inches), all based on Roanoke's official measurement, which occurs at WDBJ (Channel 7) on Hershberger Road in Northwest Roanoke. The lowest score wins.
(1) Austin Broyles, Lord Botetourt High School freshman, 22 points (Feb. 13 for first 1-inch snowfall, 16 days off; 10 inches total for season, 6 inches off) .
(2) Brittan Wilcox, Faith Christian School seventh-grader, 24 points (Feb. 5 for first 1-inch snowfall, 24 days off; 4 inches total snowfall, right on the money).
(3) Charlie Murphy, Wasena Elementary School first-grader, 31 points (Feb. 10 for first 1-inch snowfall, 19 days off; 16 inches total snowfall, 12 off).
(4) 208 others, most way, way, way out of the running.
Austin, who benefited by having the latest first-snowfall pick among all the entries, will win the contest if Roanoke doesn't reach 15 inches by April 15. If that happens, Charlie, with 20 points, would pass Austin with 21. Brittan can't get any closer, because any snow that falls moves the total away from his guess, but I'll make sure he gets some recognition if his perfect total snowfall pick holds.
Colder weather is likely to return late this week into next week. We'll see if there's any chance for a big late snow to knock Austin off his perch.




