Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Timing can affect perception of cold
Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.
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@roanoke.com
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Many Southwest Virginians, including me, think of this winter as persistently cold and windy, yet with very little snow. So how is it that the winter is averaging above normal in temperature?
December was nearly 3 degrees above normal in Roanoke at 41.8 degrees, and January was very near normal at 35.9 degrees. February, even with the recent cold weather, is still averaging about 3 degrees above normal through Monday at 41.6 degrees.
Some of the statistical deviation from perception relates to how the cold periods broke in relation to the months.
The first big cold period was from mid-November to mid-December. November, technically an autumn month, averaged a little more than a degree colder than normal, but the cold period ended in December in time for some mild days near the end of the month to raise the average.
Another cold period -- extremely cold at times -- included the last couple of weeks of January and the first few days of February. Mild weather took hold after that, which has raised February's averages enough that recent cold weather has only brought it down a few degrees.
Some of it could be our perception compared with recent winters. Coming into this winter, eight of the past 12 winter months, dating to 2005, had averaged at least 1.5 degrees above normal.
So while the cold periods have not been continuous, they have been sharp. January included a short stretch that was the coldest our region has experienced since 1996.
With milder weather moving in the rest of this week, it looks like that mild stretch will become 10 of the past 15 winter months, even though many folks are tired of this winter's biting winds.




