Kevin Myatt

Latest entries from the Weather Journal blog

• Weather Journal taking a long break
• Yes, there's still an Atlantic tropical season going on
• Freezing temperatures likely tonight

About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

This winter is looking more like a no-hitter for snow

Long before I wrote about weather, I wrote about sports. That era of my life reprises itself in occasional sports analogies in my descriptions of weather.

I've often compared this winter to a baseball game. When it comes to a significant, widespread snowfall this winter, we are two outs deep in the eighth inning of a shutout game.

But perhaps a more fitting analogy for snow fans would be a football game, now in the fourth quarter, in which the weather pattern has crossed midfield a couple of times on its way to trying to snow, but hasn't made it to the "red zone," inside the 20-yard line, even once.

This essentially snowless winter in Roanoke has not been a season of winter storm near-misses. It hasn't been stood up at the goal line or dropped a touchdown pass. It hasn't even come close to a touchdown.

It's been a winter of never-weres and never-have-beens and winter storm wannabes.

The weekend offers another chance for snowfall in Southwest Virginia, but as with every other event this year, it is anything but a slam dunk.

It all depends on a disturbance diving southeast out of Canada.

Most forecast models simply sweep this through the central and eastern United States on Saturday on a track to our north. There is some chance we could collect a light snowfall across the area under that scenario, but there is a better chance that it will take the bulk of its energy and moisture north of us, leaving us with flurries or rain showers.

A few models have tried to be more creative with it, peeling the bundle of atmospheric energy into two pieces. The first weak piece harmlessly zips north of us, but the second hangs back farther west and spins up a large low in the southern states, which becomes a large Eastern U.S. snowstorm. But that scenario looks more unlikely by the moment.

If we don't squeeze at least 1.8 inches of snow out of this weekend, and I'm doubting we will, Roanoke's pursuit of history would become something to seriously consider.

The all-time record for least snowy year in Roanoke is 2.3 inches in 1975-76 (snowfall records run July 1 to June 30, effectively October to April in our region). It didn't snow until March 9 in 1976, which sharply contrasted with many years of copious snow in the 1960s and '70s.

Roanoke officially stands at half an inch. Other areas of Southwest Virginia, particularly those in better line for the upslope snow showers peeling over the mountains from West Virginia on northwest winds, have seen more snow, several inches at a few sites. But there has yet to be a widespread snowfall across Southwest Virginia, and there has been nothing resembling a snowstorm.

There are still a few weeks left when snow is a reasonable possibility, but the likely dominant weather pattern is, at least from here, not looking especially wintry.

Old Man Winter is not down for the count yet, but he's getting bloodied on the ropes. It might be time for the referee to step in and stop the fight.

But maybe, just maybe, there will be a ninth-inning grand slam, or a last-second touchdown pass, or a buzzer shot.