Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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• Sprinkles or flurries possible Tuesday, but maybe something bigger for the weekend?
• For now, it looks like a quiet, mostly mild week ahead for SW Virginia
• Coldest morning of winter so far likely across much of Southwest Virginia; Tuesday precipitation looking doubtful
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@KevinMyattWx

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"Two Out of Three Ain't Bad," Meat Loaf once sang.

But one and a half out of three won't cut it when it comes to creating a winter storm in our area.

The three things needed to best enhance our chances of a winter storm are (1) blocking high pressure near Greenland to force the jet stream southward; (2) high pressure near the West Coast to drive Arctic air south and (3) a moist southern branch of the jet stream bringing wet storms from the Pacific.

During the past month, we've taken turns having each of the first two without the others. This week, we've had the third element, the southern branch of the jet stream, with a fading second element, high pressure near the West Coast.

The result was that Tuesday's system was plenty wet, but cold air was having a hard time hanging in. We had one of those borderline events where some folks got ice and others didn't. (There's a chance some of those who didn't would get some ice overnight or this morning.)

A pesky mess for some, a cold rain for most, but a significant winter storm for few.

The weather pattern is in transition over the next several days. A period of mild weather is likely to break out for a few days some time in the next 10 days or so, but there might be a couple of more winter weather flirtations first.