Monday, January 12, 2009
Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Approaching freeze looks deep, but snowy skies no guarantee
Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.
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@roanoke.com
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- We got graupel, but not on official record
- Moisture could get caught up in cold blast
- Forecast for Weather Journal: Partly print, with frequent Internet
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- Sprinkles or flurries possible Tuesday, but maybe something bigger for the weekend?
- For now, it looks like a quiet, mostly mild week ahead for SW Virginia
- Coldest morning of winter so far likely across much of Southwest Virginia; Tuesday precipitation looking doubtful
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January 1985 is the gold standard by which we compare all Arctic outbreaks.
It is unlikely that the intrusion of polar air arriving before Barack Obama's inauguration will rival that which hampered Ronald Reagan's second inauguration. That blast sent Roanoke to minus 11 and Blacksburg to minus 18, both all-time records, on Jan. 21. Mountain Lake bottomed out at a state record minus 30.
But, as frigid as the January 1985 plunge was, it also arrived with little snow in Southwest Virginia. Two to 3 inches of snow fell in the area three days before the Arctic blast, but most of it had melted when the big chill took hold.
In fact, 1984-85 was Roanoke's least snowy winter of the 1980s, with only 6 inches for the season. All but three of the generally mild winters of the 2000s have been snowier than that.
It must be cold to snow, but it doesn't always snow when it is cold. The weather pattern developing this week is big on cold, but may not produce snow.
Our best chances for snow this week revolve around Alberta clippers arriving Tuesday and again late Wednesday or early Thursday. These rapidly southeast-moving low-pressure systems are not known for widespread snowstorms in our area. But every now and then, one of them does pop out a few inches. Either, or both, of these could spread light snow across Southwest Virginia.
Single digits are probable and below-zero readings are possible between Thursday and Saturday, when this Arctic blast peaks. But snow looks minimal ... at least this week.
