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Friday, January 09, 2009

Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Arctic blast expected next week

Readin goes here and here and here 4 decks please.

Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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If your long johns and fur-lined coats are in mothballs, get them out and get them ready for wear.

A pile driver of a high pressure system near the West Coast will thrust a frigid stake straight from the Arctic Circle into the eastern half of the nation next week.

Many details remain undefined, but it is almost certain that very cold weather will grip our region beginning Tuesday or Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the week, possibly beyond.

At its mildest, the coming Arctic blast would give us a couple of days when it fails to get to freezing with lows dipping into the teens and single digits.

At its wildest, the deep freeze could be the most intense we've seen since 1996. Below-zero temperatures are not out of the question by the middle of next week. There might be a day next week when some locations in Southwest Virginia don't make it to 10 degrees, all day.

Probably, it will be in between, with lows in the single digits to low teens and some localized below-zero readings. Highs will probably struggle to reach 20 at least one day.

The coldest day so far in this young 21st century in Roanoke, based on average temperature for the day, was Jan. 23, 2003, with a high of 19 (the only day since 2000 when it failed to hit 20) and a low of 11, averaging 15 degrees. Based strictly on low temperature, Jan. 18, 2003, and Dec. 20, 2004, share the honors with lows of 8.

Roanoke has not had a below-zero low since Feb. 5, 1996. Blacksburg last went below zero on Dec. 7, 2002, but hit zero on Dec. 20, 2004.

If the core of the Arctic air descends into the United States and there is ample snow cover, some of those marks could be challenged.

About that snow ... it all depends on what waves of upper-level energy can kick up.

Anytime frigid Arctic air sinks all the way to the Gulf of Mexico, there is a chance a storm system will develop along the boundary between the polar chill and the mild subtropical conditions over the Gulf.

There are no surefire shots at snow yet, but I have a hunch (and some forecast model support) that if it gets as cold as advertised for a week to 10 days, we will get some moisture-bearing systems that can deliver the first regionwide snowfall of the season.

There will certainly be bouts of mountain snow showers and some fast-moving, southeastward-diving Alberta clippers to deal with, too.

Winter simply refuses to be a no-show, and this round of chill probably won't be a no-snow.

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