Monday, January 05, 2009
Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Once again, Roanoke is on the razor's edge between weather systems
Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.
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- Sprinkles or flurries possible Tuesday, but maybe something bigger for the weekend?
- For now, it looks like a quiet, mostly mild week ahead for SW Virginia
- Coldest morning of winter so far likely across much of Southwest Virginia; Tuesday precipitation looking doubtful
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It will be another borderline ice threat for Southwest Virginia tonight and Tuesday, as our region will be riding the razor thin margin between a major ice storm and another long, cold but liquid rain.
An imperfect atmospheric setup leads to a danger of imperfect forecasts, as tiny variables that won't be known until the precipitation actually begins falling could lead to major changes in the results.
High pressure to the northeast will be banking cold air against the mountains of our region as moisture from the southwest, swept northeastward by a low-pressure system moving up from the Gulf of Mexico, overruns the cold air.
The cold air mass isn't really all that thick, but it's just cold enough that, in early January, it will be flirting with the freezing mark. The high pressure system pushing the cold air southward is also not perfectly placed. Its position near Washington, D.C., may prove to be too far east to properly hold the cold air in.
So this could be a troublesome ice storm, a minor nuisance or even a winter-weather no-show.
The early call: a brief period of freezing rain and sleet in most areas late Monday night and early Tuesday, changing to rain during the day. This might vary by location.
You know if you live in one of those places where the ice seems to hold on longer after it's just puddles here in the Roanoke Valley.
