Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: This January showing signs that it won't start as warm as the past four
Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.
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You only need to look at temperatures in the first 15 days of January over the past four years to get a feel for how those winters have gone.
From Jan. 1 to 15 in 2005 through 2008, there were 24 days with highs of 60 degrees or higher in Roanoke, but only nine days with lows below freezing.
There hasn't been a measurable snow in the first half of January since 4 inches fell on Jan. 9, 2004 -- and even that January began with five consecutive days above 60, one reaching 74.
A weather pattern featuring strong low pressure in the northern Pacific, sweeping mild air east-northeastward across the nation, has dominated early January each of the past four years.
But there are growing signals that this January will be different than the past four.
I wrote Monday about how high pressure building over Greenland is likely to begin buckling the jet stream southward, allowing cold air from Canada to sink into our region. Today's windy Arctic cold front begins that process.
But there are now also growing signals that the Pacific pattern will come in line for colder weather by the second week of January. High pressure near the West Coast may grow and force more Arctic air southward with its counterclockwise spin.
A stray 60-degree day can't be ruled out as this pattern sets up over the next week or two, but another round of extended early-January warmth looks unlikely.
