Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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• Coldest morning of winter so far likely across much of Southwest Virginia; Tuesday precipitation looking doubtful
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I guessed the season's first 1-inch snowfall in Roanoke would occur Tuesday. It's not going to happen, nor is it likely anytime soon.

With a mild, showery week ahead, and mild weather likely most of the next two weeks and possibly longer, it's looking good for anyone in the snowfall contest who picked a January or February date for the first 1-inch snowfall.

That would be the few rather than the many. Of the 211 entries I received, only 30 picked a first snowfall date Jan. 1 or later.

The first 1-inch snowfall is only half the contest, but those of us who picked anything before Christmas will be in a big hole if the expected weather pattern comes to fruition.

Each entry is scored by giving one point for every day off the first 1-inch snowfall date, and one point for every inch off the season's total snowfall through April 15, rounded to the nearest inch. The contestant with the fewest points, and therefore the greatest accuracy, wins.

Being 15 or more days off on the first 1-inch snowfall would be a hard deficit to overcome, especially because about half of the total snowfall guesses are bunched in the 10- to 20-inch range. I'm one of them, predicting 17 inches.

If this winter either produces very little snow or goes haywire with frequent winter storms after New Year's Day, most of us are going to be way off, but a few pickers will look like geniuses.