Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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• Coldest morning of winter so far likely across much of Southwest Virginia; Tuesday precipitation looking doubtful
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Winter is here.

There is little doubt about that, considering the larger-than-expected snow event on Monday and Tuesday, another round of snow showers with a reinforcing shot of cold air overnight Thursday into today, possibly more snow showers on Tuesday, and the likelihood of a deep southerly dipping jet stream for most of the foreseeable future.

By foreseeable future, I mean into at least the first week of December.

That doesn't mean every day will be struggling to get above freezing with snowflakes dancing in the air like some days this week, but don't expect any days in the 60s anytime soon.

The average through the period will probably be highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. That's close to our normals for January.

It doesn't look like a very wet period, though. Surface and upper-air wind flow predominantly from the northwest tends to be dry, having crossed thousands of miles of land rather than oceans. It's made even drier on this side of the Appalachians by downslope effects, as whatever moisture is available goes into piling up snow in West Virginia's mountains.

But we should watch for any kind of strong disturbance that can get caught in the flow and drop as far south as the Southeast U.S. or Gulf of Mexico.

If any kind of low pressure can dig that far south, it would be able to tap Gulf of Mexico moisture, while keeping cold air in place, possibly triggering a winter storm.

As of now there is nothing like that on the horizon. The Thanksgiving weekend period into the first week of December holds some hints that such a development might be possible, but that's still a long way off for critical details.

The next storm system, a cold front moving through Monday, will bring more rain than snow. Low pressure in the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes should be able to sweep in enough milder air that our temperatures will be mostly above freezing when precipitation arrives.

Once the front goes by, though, a new round of cold air will move in, and familiar upslope snow showers will occur yet again as the northwest winds glide up the west slope of the Appalachians.

There is certainly no guarantee that this current weather pattern will frequently repeat this winter. But every day it holds this early in the season, the colder our ground becomes and the deeper the snowpack gets north of us. The cold air mass gets denser and harder to move.

Winter can be a persistent beast, if it gets going. This one is off to a strong start.