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Friday, November 14, 2008

Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Snowfall forecasters weigh in

Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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I expected a flurry. I got a blizzard.

A simple call for a few predictions about snowfall this winter has resulted in more than 140 entries.

Southwest Virginians are certainly passionate about snow -- but I already knew that, judging from my correspondence and online blog traffic.

Though I let a few more entries trickle in Thursday after the deadline, I've cut the contest off. We're just getting too close to the time when it's possible that, any day, there will be a snow threat on the horizon.

Carole Tarrant, editor of The Roanoke Times, wants to sweeten the pot a bit. Not only will the winners get the glory of having their forecast prowess trumpeted in Weather Journal, but there will be some Roanoke Times or weather-related goodies, too.

I apologize to those who don't have computer access, since I took all entries by e-mail or blog comments.

This was originally intended to be a spur-of-the-moment, informal kind of thing. Thanks to many loyal readers, it's a little bigger now. If I do it again next year, I'll get it going earlier and allow for mail-in entries.

A cursory look at the many entries reveals a wide range.

Some think we're going to get just a few inches; others think we will get more than 40 inches. Some think we won't get out of November without our first significant snow, while at least three think it will be February before we see our first 1-inch snow.

And contrary to what you might think, it seems like the younger entrants are more conservative in their snowfall guesses than many of the adults.

My thanks to all who entered and best wishes to each of you.

Arctic chill on the way

By this time next week, we will probably have seen at least a few snowflakes flying through the air, though probably not the first 1-inch snow in Roanoke.

The first major push of Arctic air this season is due early next week. By Tuesday or Wednesday, highs may struggle to reach 40 degrees.

Blustery northwest winds whipping up and over the mountains west of Roanoke will kick off the familiar upslope snow showers. Some places in West Virginia might collect a few inches Tuesday. Here in the Roanoke Valley, there's a pretty good chance some snow flurries will dance in the breeze.

Before then, we have another batch of rain pushing through tonight and Saturday, as a cold front plows into moist air. There might even be some thunder, along with gusty winds.

Though we may recover nicely from the chill toward the end of next week, it looks like another Arctic blast will arrive just in time for cold turkey on Thanksgiving week.

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