Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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• We got graupel, but not on official record
• Moisture could get caught up in cold blast
• Forecast for Weather Journal: Partly print, with frequent Internet
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• Sprinkles or flurries possible Tuesday, but maybe something bigger for the weekend?
• For now, it looks like a quiet, mostly mild week ahead for SW Virginia
• Coldest morning of winter so far likely across much of Southwest Virginia; Tuesday precipitation looking doubtful
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There is little doubt that Thursday will end up being a soggy day. Some of that rain might even get here today.

But this storm system has a chance of doing the familiar "Southwest Virginia split" that could leave us with relatively light amounts -- enough to make things messy, but not enough to help with the drought.

The split happens when a storm system's best dynamics go to our northwest, while the best moisture stays to our southeast.

That could happen this time as a strong low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes, taking the best wind dynamics with it, while thunderstorms to the south and southeast of us cut off some of the moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean.

That's why, for now, rainfall amounts of less than an inch are expected. That could go up if some details change with how the storm develops.

This week's rain will be occurring as warm, moist air overrides a cool dome of air at the surface. Beyond some isolated sleet or brief freezing rain in the deepest valleys to our west, the cold air won't be deep enough for frozen precipitation.

Much colder weather is on the way for the weekend and likely much of the next two weeks.

Which reminds me: Get in your snowfall forecast today. E-mail me (kevin.myatt@roanoke.com) your predictions for the date of the season's first 1-inch snow in Roanoke and Roanoke's seasonal snowfall total through April 15, rounded to the nearest inch. I won't take any entries after today.