Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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• Sprinkles or flurries possible Tuesday, but maybe something bigger for the weekend?
• For now, it looks like a quiet, mostly mild week ahead for SW Virginia
• Coldest morning of winter so far likely across much of Southwest Virginia; Tuesday precipitation looking doubtful
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Have you noticed how quiet the weather has been lately?

On July 4, I wrote a column summarizing all the active weather we had in the first half of the year.

On July 25, I wrote another recapping our "summer of severe weather."

But since then, our weather has been remarkably quiet. All too quiet, if you either like atmospheric antics or fear an impending tempest.

Think about it a minute: When is the last time you remember hearing it thunder? Maybe once or twice since August, particularly if you live in Southside or east of Roanoke. But thunderstorms, and often severe ones, were happening twice or more a week in June and part of July. This year's thunderstorm season shut off like a faucet.

Aside from a soaking from a past-its-prime Tropical Storm Fay on Aug. 27, a brush from underachieving Tropical Storm Hanna on Sept. 6, and a decent watering from that weird not-quite-tropical cyclone that spun inland near the end of September, there really hasn't been much in the way of meteorological excitement around here for months.

The temperatures have been close to normal for most of the past four months. With a torrid spell of mid-90s heat, early June gave us the illusion that we might be in for a long, hot summer, but that kind of heat never again settled in for more than a day or two during summer's "dog days." Instead, July and August averaged almost exactly normal in temperature, and a couple of short streaks of toasty temperatures in September and October failed to push those months more than 2 degrees above normal. (November has started much above normal, and today's high could challenge a 63-year-old record high of 78.)

And while we haven't really made up much ground on the long-term drought, we've had just enough episodes of moderate rain that it's not crispy, especially along and east of the Blue Ridge. Generally speaking, the farther west you are in Southwest Virginia, the drier it's been.

There is a great up side to a period of boring weather. We've had many gorgeous days to enjoy the outdoors, including a late-arriving but extremely colorful autumn foliage display in and around the Roanoke Valley. It's definitely one of the two or three best I've seen in my nine years living here, and it's still happening, thanks to the lack of stiff winds to shake the leaves loose.

Quiet weather never lasts. Often, we're awakened suddenly from a long period of monotonous weather by something dramatic.

Here is something I am noticing about this fall: a repeated tendency for the jet stream to dip pretty far to the south over the East. And when the jet stream dips, often some kind of low-pressure system forms over or near the Southeast.

The past few years, it seems that these low pressure systems have tended to take paths across the middle of the country during the winter.

I am wondering if this tendency signals a greater propensity, as we approach winter, for waves of low pressure to develop over the Southeast and then move up the East Coast.

You know where I am going with this. The next big event to shake us out of our weather complacency could well be the first winter storm of the season, and maybe only a few weeks away. And, if some elements of our recent weather pattern repeat themselves, we might have more opportunities for wintry weather than we've had in many years.

Cheers and boos break the silence.

But for now, enjoy another day of warm, boring but beautiful weather, before colder weather and some chances of rain arrive over the weekend and into next week.