Kevin Myatt

Latest entries from the Weather Journal blog

• Weather Journal remains on break
• Coastal low prompts Southwest Virginia flooding
• Hurricane Ida: Something extraordinary may be happening

About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

Relative quiet hovers in area

Have you noticed how quiet the weather has been lately?

On July 4, I wrote a column summarizing all the active weather we had in the first half of the year.

On July 25, I wrote another recapping our "summer of severe weather."

But since then, our weather has been remarkably quiet. All too quiet, if you either like atmospheric antics or fear an impending tempest.

Think about it a minute: When is the last time you remember hearing it thunder? Maybe once or twice since August, particularly if you live in Southside or east of Roanoke. But thunderstorms, and often severe ones, were happening twice or more a week in June and part of July. This year's thunderstorm season shut off like a faucet.

Aside from a soaking from a past-its-prime Tropical Storm Fay on Aug. 27, a brush from underachieving Tropical Storm Hanna on Sept. 6, and a decent watering from that weird not-quite-tropical cyclone that spun inland near the end of September, there really hasn't been much in the way of meteorological excitement around here for months.

The temperatures have been close to normal for most of the past four months. With a torrid spell of mid-90s heat, early June gave us the illusion that we might be in for a long, hot summer, but that kind of heat never again settled in for more than a day or two during summer's "dog days." Instead, July and August averaged almost exactly normal in temperature, and a couple of short streaks of toasty temperatures in September and October failed to push those months more than 2 degrees above normal. (November has started much above normal, and today's high could challenge a 63-year-old record high of 78.)

And while we haven't really made up much ground on the long-term drought, we've had just enough episodes of moderate rain that it's not crispy, especially along and east of the Blue Ridge. Generally speaking, the farther west you are in Southwest Virginia, the drier it's been.

There is a great up side to a period of boring weather. We've had many gorgeous days to enjoy the outdoors, including a late-arriving but extremely colorful autumn foliage display in and around the Roanoke Valley. It's definitely one of the two or three best I've seen in my nine years living here, and it's still happening, thanks to the lack of stiff winds to shake the leaves loose.

Quiet weather never lasts. Often, we're awakened suddenly from a long period of monotonous weather by something dramatic.

Here is something I am noticing about this fall: a repeated tendency for the jet stream to dip pretty far to the south over the East. And when the jet stream dips, often some kind of low-pressure system forms over or near the Southeast.

The past few years, it seems that these low pressure systems have tended to take paths across the middle of the country during the winter.

I am wondering if this tendency signals a greater propensity, as we approach winter, for waves of low pressure to develop over the Southeast and then move up the East Coast.

You know where I am going with this. The next big event to shake us out of our weather complacency could well be the first winter storm of the season, and maybe only a few weeks away. And, if some elements of our recent weather pattern repeat themselves, we might have more opportunities for wintry weather than we've had in many years.

Cheers and boos break the silence.

But for now, enjoy another day of warm, boring but beautiful weather, before colder weather and some chances of rain arrive over the weekend and into next week.