Kevin Myatt

Latest entries from the Weather Journal blog

• Weather Journal remains on break
• Coastal low prompts Southwest Virginia flooding
• Hurricane Ida: Something extraordinary may be happening

About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

Wacky Fay wobbles, won't leave

Oh, Fay.

The Atlantic tropical season's sixth named storm is, all at once, an underachiever, a flooding menace, a disappointment for drought areas and a source of constant meteorological confusion.

But there is still hope that Tropical Storm Fay will yet deliver desperately needed rain in the Carolinas and Virginia. Most of Virginia south of Roanoke is now in severe drought status, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday.

The scenario I drew out a week ago as a possibility proved to be about two-thirds true. A tropical disturbance moved from the northeastern Caribbean into the extreme eastern Gulf of Mexico, strengthening into a tropical storm.

But a high pressure system, instead of building off the East Coast where it could pull Fay steadily northward, developed over New England and spread southward. That blocked Fay from advancing northward.

As a result, Fay danced around Florida, then stalled, dumping humongous amounts of rain that has the state's governor describing some of the flooding as "catastrophic."

We wanted Fay to spread a few inches of rain over several dry states, not dump up to 30 inches in a few counties of a low-lying, swampy state.

Fay has consistently defied forecasters this week.

n Fay was forecast to intensify into a hurricane before it hit Florida the first time. It didn't.

n Fay was forecast to gradually diminish in intensity over Florida. It didn't. It strengthened.

n Fay was then forecast to become a hurricane off the east coast of Florida. It didn't. It hugged the coast and didn't intensify much.

Fay, being pushed slowly by an enlarging high pressure system over the Northeast, is now forecast to move west-northwest, across northern Florida into Alabama and Mississippi over the weekend, diminishing to a depression.

It is possible that an approaching cold front will sweep Fay's moisture toward us next week. A persistent low pressure area in the central United States has also spread a plume of moisture up the entire length of the Mississippi River Valley. The cold front will push all that moisture eastward next week, but it's impossible to tell this far out where the most substantial rain will occur.

The craziest scenario would be for Fay to move a little farther south than anticipated, re-enter the Gulf of Mexico, and belatedly strengthen into a hurricane before making a fourth U.S. landfall along the northern Gulf Coast.

That seems far-fetched, but Fay may be just wacky enough to try it.