Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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Oh, Fay.

The Atlantic tropical season's sixth named storm is, all at once, an underachiever, a flooding menace, a disappointment for drought areas and a source of constant meteorological confusion.

But there is still hope that Tropical Storm Fay will yet deliver desperately needed rain in the Carolinas and Virginia. Most of Virginia south of Roanoke is now in severe drought status, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday.

The scenario I drew out a week ago as a possibility proved to be about two-thirds true. A tropical disturbance moved from the northeastern Caribbean into the extreme eastern Gulf of Mexico, strengthening into a tropical storm.

But a high pressure system, instead of building off the East Coast where it could pull Fay steadily northward, developed over New England and spread southward. That blocked Fay from advancing northward.

As a result, Fay danced around Florida, then stalled, dumping humongous amounts of rain that has the state's governor describing some of the flooding as "catastrophic."

We wanted Fay to spread a few inches of rain over several dry states, not dump up to 30 inches in a few counties of a low-lying, swampy state.

Fay has consistently defied forecasters this week.

n Fay was forecast to intensify into a hurricane before it hit Florida the first time. It didn't.

n Fay was forecast to gradually diminish in intensity over Florida. It didn't. It strengthened.

n Fay was then forecast to become a hurricane off the east coast of Florida. It didn't. It hugged the coast and didn't intensify much.

Fay, being pushed slowly by an enlarging high pressure system over the Northeast, is now forecast to move west-northwest, across northern Florida into Alabama and Mississippi over the weekend, diminishing to a depression.

It is possible that an approaching cold front will sweep Fay's moisture toward us next week. A persistent low pressure area in the central United States has also spread a plume of moisture up the entire length of the Mississippi River Valley. The cold front will push all that moisture eastward next week, but it's impossible to tell this far out where the most substantial rain will occur.

The craziest scenario would be for Fay to move a little farther south than anticipated, re-enter the Gulf of Mexico, and belatedly strengthen into a hurricane before making a fourth U.S. landfall along the northern Gulf Coast.

That seems far-fetched, but Fay may be just wacky enough to try it.