Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

kevin.myatt
@roanoke.com
981-3341

Weather with Kevin Myatt

Recent columns

• We got graupel, but not on official record
• Moisture could get caught up in cold blast
• Forecast for Weather Journal: Partly print, with frequent Internet
• Column archive

Read the Weather Journal blog

• Sprinkles or flurries possible Tuesday, but maybe something bigger for the weekend?
• For now, it looks like a quiet, mostly mild week ahead for SW Virginia
• Coldest morning of winter so far likely across much of Southwest Virginia; Tuesday precipitation looking doubtful
• Weather Journal blog

#swvawx on Twitter

@KevinMyattWx

• Follow Kevin on Twitter at @KevinMyattWx

A large cluster of thunderstorms moved westward off the coast of Africa last week, and soon became Tropical Storm Bertha.

This is not an unusual occurrence during the Atlantic tropical season. But it is unusually early.

Most Atlantic basin tropical systems that develop in June and July form in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean, where water temperatures can more quickly reach 80 degrees as early summer sun heats relatively shallow water.

The so-called Cape Verde hurricane season, when systems moving off the coast of Africa are more likely to become tropical storms, usually doesn't start until August and runs into September and October.

Bertha will be tracking west to northwest for many days across open water, a threat to nothing but shipping interests. Any strengthening is expected to be slow, though it may achieve hurricane status within a couple of days.

A week to 10 days from now, there is a chance that Bertha could affect the U.S. East Coast. A curve toward the central Atlantic is a little more likely, but the chance of its affecting the East Coast is enough to keep a wary eye on it.

The bigger question: Does the early emergence of a Cape Verde-type tropical system suggest an active hurricane season is ahead? We should know within a few weeks.