Kevin Myatt

Latest entries from the Weather Journal blog

• Weather Journal remains on break
• Coastal low prompts Southwest Virginia flooding
• Hurricane Ida: Something extraordinary may be happening

About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

La Nina appears on its last gasp

La Nina is dying.

Though its direct impact to any specific weather events is hard to ascertain, that should bring a cheer from waterlogged Iowans, smoky North Carolinians and dusty Virginians alike.

Any change from the weather pattern that has been happening can only be an improvement for anybody who has gotten way too much or way too little rain, it would seem.

La Nina is a phenomenon characterized by a streak of relatively cold water in the central Pacific. The Climate Prediction Center notes it has been weakening for months and is just barely hanging on now. Climatologists are forecasting neutral conditions -- neither La Nina nor its hot alter ego, El Nino -- to develop by next month.

La Nina and El Nino never operate alone, but in combination with scores of other factors. It's long been my opinion that the effects of each are overhyped in some media. Weather events are far too complicated to ever pin blame on just one source.

That said, this La Nina period certainly seems to have lived up to some of the general expectations that have been at least loosely linked to similar patterns over the past several decades.

n Mild, dry winter here in Virginia, and throughout the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, check.

n Tendency for strong high pressure system to develop off the Southeast coast, deflecting wet storm systems farther west, check.

n Increased threat of winter tornadoes in the South, a huge check mark, based on the Feb. 5 outbreak that killed 58.

n Enhanced threat of spring severe weather, often a little farther east than the core of "Tornado Alley" in the Plains, check. Early in the spring, Arkansas was the biggest target of tornadoes and flooding; later, it has been Iowa. Certainly, traditional Tornado Alley states such as Kansas and Oklahoma have had more than their fair share of tornadoes, too.

n More intense Atlantic hurricane season in 2007 ... I would put a check mark beside that too. The oft-repeated myth about last hurricane season is that it was a weak one, based solely on the fact that only one hurricane hit the United States. But actually, taking the entire Atlantic basin into account, it was a slightly above average tropical season that included the first recorded occurrence of two Category 5 hurricanes making landfall in the same season, both in Mexico.

The Climate Prediction Center isn't sure what will happen after La Nina dies off. There are three possibilities: (1) neutral conditions for an extended period of time, (2) the development of an El Nino, and (3) the resurgence of La Nina. The center is leaning toward neutral conditions.

Winter fans, you should root for neutral conditions. La Nina has a strong correlation to mild, dry winters around here while El Nino tends to produce mild, wet ones. Neutral conditions give our region the best shot at a "normal" winter.

But part of the reason we are in such a prolonged drought is that the El Nino of 2006-07 didn't do what it was supposed to do. El Nino more typically delivers a train of wet storm systems to the Southeast. Other factors turned more of those storm systems to the northeast across the central United States.

We've been stuck for two years with storm systems moving along similar tracks, into the middle of the U.S. more often than up the East Coast.

Something needs to derail that soon, before more Iowa cities become swamps and North Carolina swamps become cinders.