Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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• Coldest morning of winter so far likely across much of Southwest Virginia; Tuesday precipitation looking doubtful
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As May moves toward its final days, it is replaying a familiar theme for Southwest Virginia: dry.

As of Tuesday, rainfall was about 2 inches below normal for the month to date in Roanoke.

May has failed to follow up on April's wetness. For much of May, cool air from Canada has shut off the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Now, as the Gulf flow has become re-established, the stronger storm systems are going west of our region. Most of the rain and storms have been occurring in the nation's midsection.

April and October are the only months since the start of 2007 to have significantly above-normal precipitation. December was near normal, with the rest of those 16 months significantly below normal. The overall pattern of dryness goes back to 2005.

Temperatures this month, despite Canadian air intrusions and some chilly mornings in the 40s, are averaging very close to normal.

Long term, the Climate Prediction Center is calling for generally normal precipitation and temperatures over the next two weeks as late spring creeps toward summer.