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Monday, May 05, 2008

Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Even though we've seen hundreds of tornadoes, more could be coming

Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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There have been a lot of tornadoes in the United States so far this year. That should come as no shock if you've paid attention to the news.

Following last week's outbreaks in southeast Virginia and the central U.S., there had been 731 tornado reports since Jan. 1 nationally, according to the Storm Prediction Center. That's running more than 100 ahead of the same time a year ago, and even more than that over the two years before.

Over the past decade, the Storm Prediction Center calculates there have been an average of 1,270 tornadoes reported in the United States each year. It's next to impossible to compare annual tornado records for recent years to those further back than that. Only in recent years have Doppler radar and swarms of spotters and chasers allowed the detection of hundreds of twisters that would have previously gone uncounted.

Experts sift back through the tornado reports months after they occur, combining duplicate reports, so the overall numbers typically drop some. But still, it's safe to say the U.S. is probably at least halfway to the annual average with the prime tornado-spawning month of May having just begun.

Most alarming is that 76 people have already died in tornadoes this year. In all of 2007, which was considered an active year, 81 died. Tornado deaths have not topped 100 in a calendar year since 130 died in 1998.

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