Kevin Myatt

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About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

Winter possibilities abound

I write about possibilites in this column, and though I may offer an opinion from time to time, I don't issue definitive forecasts. Following weather is about considering various alternate scenarios that can develop from a set of givens.

If you enjoy that, you enjoy this column. If you wan't something more concrete, this is probably not your cup of tea.

So here are 5 Christmas weekend possibilities:

(1) Cold and dry as high pressure crushes all weather systems.

(2) Cold and dry here as storm system takes track across Deep South, bringing rare white Christmas to places like Baton Rouge, Mobile and Savannah.

(3) Close brush with winter storm that turns up the East Coast and buries eastern Virginia.

(4) Light brush of snow as weak storm turns up the East Coast.

(5) Big snow from well wrapped-up Gulf low that storms up the Eastern Seaboard.

All of these are on the table at this point. By Thursday or Friday, hopefully we can eliminate two or three of them. Most forecasters are leaning away from 1 and 5 at this point.

The next 24-48 hours will see an impressive storm clobber places from Arkansas to Ohio with a good deal of snow, possibly more than a foot in a few areas. It's a classic Ohio Valley winter storm, which we haven't seen many of in recent years.

For us, it will pull up mild, moist air that will send the temperatures toward 50 degrees by Wednesday – only to have them knocked down again by another Arctic front once this storm moves into Canada. We'll get some showers, maybe a rumble of thunder or two, and then more mountain upslope snow showers in the usual places as the northwest winds kick in by Thursday.

Dec. 20 -- Three questions you may be asking:

(1) What was the deal with Richmond and eastern Virginia getting "thundersnow" and very quick bursts of heavy snow that covered roads? (2) How can it be this darn cold and the next major weather system, in less than 48 hours, not be a winter storm for us?

(3) Will it snow for Christmas?

We'll start with No. 1.

A major arctic cold front pushed through the area Sunday, accompanied by a low-pressure area aloft. When this arctic air pushed into the routinely cool air already present, thunderstorms developed along the boundary, not too much unlike what happens when a Pacific cool front pushes into hot, humid summer air.

These thunderstorms - modest in height and strength compared with summer rumblers - pulled down cold air from the upper levels to the surface, and that quickly changed rain to snow, as temperatures fell from the lower 40s to near freezing in a few minutes. Many areas in central and eastern Virginia got a quick burst of snow, though the amounts were spotty and generally not more than an inch.

Still, it was a bit of pre-Christmas winter weather excitement for some Virginia folks.

Question No. 2 revolves around the expected track of a low-pressure area during the next two days. The favored track by most computer models appears to be through the Tennessee and Ohio valleys, to our west, certainly no farther east than the spine of the Appalachians. As such, this low would drag milder, moist air across us at midweek, scouring out this blast of arctic air at the surface.

Behind the low, where the cold air meets the moisture circulated counterclockwise around the low's center, there could be a substantial snowstorm for some part of the Midwest, Ohio Valley or Great Lakes. An inland tracking storm like this is in keeping with some of my earlier winter prognostications, which would have a Texas-to-Great Lakes storm track becoming the "default" pattern for the winter and thereby keeping our snow totals below normal for the season.

The final question is one I'm beginning to change my mind on. A few days ago, I would have said that we would probably get a significant snow on or before Christmas with the upcoming weather pattern. But with this past weekend's storm not really coming together, and the midweek storm heading on a path to our west, it would take a snow from a potential Christmas weekend low to bring our first widespread winter storm of the season.

Some earlier forecast models favored the development of a Gulf of Mexico low late this week that would travel up the East Coast over the weekend and into early next week. Such a storm track would be ideal for heavy snow in our area, with cold air locked in behind the passing midweek storm.

However, later models favor a large arctic high pressure crushing any storms that may try to form, bringing dry and cold weather for the Christmas holidays, or suggest a weaker storm may squirt just east of our area.

Models sometimes pick back up on storms they appear to lose. I wouldn't rule out a Christmas weekend system, but the chances are looking slimmer at this point.

The pattern that brought us this taste of winter chill may relax into next week. Then, it would be a waiting game for when it would reload. We'll get our winter storms here eventually, I think, but overall this still looks like more of a Midwestern winter than an Eastern winter.

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