Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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• We got graupel, but not on official record
• Moisture could get caught up in cold blast
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• Sprinkles or flurries possible Tuesday, but maybe something bigger for the weekend?
• For now, it looks like a quiet, mostly mild week ahead for SW Virginia
• Coldest morning of winter so far likely across much of Southwest Virginia; Tuesday precipitation looking doubtful
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The storm that is likely not going to be a big deal on Sunday will usher in some frigid temperatures. It also could be the first episode in a trilogy of winter storms over the central and eastern U.S. during the next week, with additional threats at midweek and around Christmas Day.

But first things first: Will it snow Sunday? If you’re in Roanoke, probably a little. In Blacksburg, a little more, maybe enough to dust car tops (before the wind blows it away). In those upslope mountain regions that always get snow, a few inches. Barring an unforeseen development, this will not be a major winter storm for us.

The particular kind of winter storm scenario developing on Sunday is called a Miller B system. In short, a Miller B system involves upper level energy diving southeast from the Great Lakes toward the middle Appalachians, near our latitude or slightly above us. The upper level low then spins off a surface low off the East Coast, which ultimately becomes the prime driver of the system.

Typically, we are caught in the energy transfer zone, getting little out of the southeastward moving impulse (partly because its moisture shield starts weakening during the energy transfer, and partly because of the downslope winds off the mountains) and too far west and south to get much out of the coastal low. Miller B storms become more monstrous for states to our north, or go out to sea if they’re too far east.

If the upper level low comes farther southeast with a bit more vigor, or the surface low begins forming farther south or inland, a surprise snow of a few inches could develop rather quickly for us on Sunday. More likely, we’ll see a few snow showers in Roanoke, and more vigorous snow squalls on the west-facing mountain slopes in the brutal northwest winds that will develop behind an Arctic cold front associated with this system. Favored high-elevation locations to our west might see 3-6 inches before the winds die down late Monday.

Many of you will see temperatures below 10 degrees come Monday morning. That will be a bitterly cold start to what could be a very interesting weather week.