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Current Conditions: Fair
Temperature: 65°F Wind: From the CALM at 0 mph Relative Humidity: 87% |
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Latest entries from the Weather Journal blog
About Kevin
Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.
Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.
Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.
The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.
Sunday storm may be first act in weather trilogy
By Kevin Myatt
The Roanoke Times
The storm that is likely not going to be a big deal on Sunday will usher in some frigid temperatures. It also could be the first episode in a trilogy of winter storms over the central and eastern U.S. during the next week, with additional threats at midweek and around Christmas Day.
But first things first: Will it snow Sunday? If you’re in Roanoke, probably a little. In Blacksburg, a little more, maybe enough to dust car tops (before the wind blows it away). In those upslope mountain regions that always get snow, a few inches. Barring an unforeseen development, this will not be a major winter storm for us.
The particular kind of winter storm scenario developing on Sunday is called a Miller B system. In short, a Miller B system involves upper level energy diving southeast from the Great Lakes toward the middle Appalachians, near our latitude or slightly above us. The upper level low then spins off a surface low off the East Coast, which ultimately becomes the prime driver of the system.
Typically, we are caught in the energy transfer zone, getting little out of the southeastward moving impulse (partly because its moisture shield starts weakening during the energy transfer, and partly because of the downslope winds off the mountains) and too far west and south to get much out of the coastal low. Miller B storms become more monstrous for states to our north, or go out to sea if they’re too far east.
If the upper level low comes farther southeast with a bit more vigor, or the surface low begins forming farther south or inland, a surprise snow of a few inches could develop rather quickly for us on Sunday. More likely, we’ll see a few snow showers in Roanoke, and more vigorous snow squalls on the west-facing mountain slopes in the brutal northwest winds that will develop behind an Arctic cold front associated with this system. Favored high-elevation locations to our west might see 3-6 inches before the winds die down late Monday.
Many of you will see temperatures below 10 degrees come Monday morning. That will be a bitterly cold start to what could be a very interesting weather week.
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