Kevin Myatt

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About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

As expected, winter was dry, mild

So I missed it by one-tenth of an inch.

On Dec. 1, I predicted Roanoke would see between 5 and 10 inches of snow this winter. I always make my winter "guesscast" in increments of 5 inches.

We ended up with 4.9 inches, officially.

Winter on the meteorological calendar ended Feb. 29, but for the sake of snow forecasts, I always include March, too.

Now that the weekend's disturbances moved through as expected with only a few scattered snow showers, it appears very likely that the threat of significant snow has ended for 2007-08, at least in the lower elevations of Southwest Virginia such as the Roanoke Valley.

As meager as the snowfall was this season, it was about a third more than a year ago, when only 3.4 inches fell. The record for least snow in a winter occurred in 1975-76, when only 2.3 inches fell in Roanoke.

For me, this winter guess was close enough to call it a hit. That would make me two for four in the years I've done this.

There is no such thing as a sure bet in long-range weather forecasting, but here is one that seems to work most of the time for Roanoke: When La Nina is occurring, don't expect much snow.

La Nina refers to the irregularly recurring cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific.

This winter's snow dearth means that, in eight of 13 La Nina events since 1950, Roanoke's snowfall has been at least 6 inches below the long-term average of about 22 inches. Only one La Nina winter has produced snowfall 6 or more inches above average.

So just remember this in the future: La Nina equals mild, dry winters for Southwest Virginia. With total precipitation more than 3 inches below normal in the December-to-February period, it would certainly qualify as dry.

It was also definitely a mild winter. I predicted an average temperature 1 degree above normal on Dec. 1. In fact, the period from December to February averaged nearly 3 degrees above normal. March is also averaging about 2 ½ degrees above normal.

This winter didn't seem as warm as last year's because we didn't have long periods of much-above normal temperatures contrasted with shorter periods of sharply cold weather.

Instead, we had a lot of slightly to moderately above normal temperatures, a few days of warm temperatures and little in the way of extremely cold weather. Roanoke had only seven days with lows below 20, bottoming out at 11 on Jan. 21.

Nationally, according the National Climatic Data Center, winter 2007-08 was the coldest in seven years, though still about two-tenths of a degree above the long-term average.

Also, many parts of the western, central and extreme northeastern U.S. had copious amounts of snow for part or all of the season. Western states are celebrating the thick mountain snows that will help recharge dwindling water tables, while some cities in the upper Midwest experienced seasonal snowfall ranking among the top few heaviest on record.

In January, snow cover extended over more of the Northern Hemisphere than it has in 42 years. Much of Asia experienced an extremely severe winter.

But none of that was true in Southwest Virginia, or really anywhere in the East south of far northern New England.

My many snow-loving readers are restless. Several months of meteorological focus on severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, heat waves, drought and hurricanes lie ahead before the weather pattern has any chance to bring piles of white back to Southwest Virginia.

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