Kevin Myatt

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About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

Chances of snow keep melting

Snow fans, you just can't buy a break.

System after system that could have delivered significant snow to Southwest Virginia have been shoved west of us by persistent high pressure off the southeast coast.

This time around, with the jet stream pattern actually looking very winterlike for a few days now that it is early spring, it appears that a potential snowmaker will miss us to the east.

It will probably develop and move too far east to swing enough moisture into arriving deep cold air for us to get much snow. Some light snow or flurries, possibly mixed with rain, are possible on Monday, but a significant spring snowfall appears unlikely at this point.

My one hesitancy is that nearly every storm system has ended up farther west than where the computer models placed it 48-72 hours before its arrival.

Even last week's massive rainstorm for the middle U.S. -- causing historic flooding in some locations -- followed that pattern. That heavy streak of rain was projected right over us about five days out, and was only a little west of us three days before. It ended up from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.

So there is some chance that this system, too, will end up farther west than expected. But it would take quite a big jump, now, for there to be more than a little slush on the grass. It's not impossible, but it's far from likely.

Also keep in mind that the later we get in the season, the more absolutely textbook perfect the atmospheric setup has to be to deliver snow.

A significant snow later than March 15 requires a deep pool of Arctic air shoved southward by strong high pressure in Canada. We will actually have that the first few days of next week.

But even the coldest air this late in the season usually means daytime highs considerably above freezing.

There is a reason it often seems like it either snows heavily or not at all in early spring. It usually takes a heavy fall of snow to help pull cold air aloft to the surface, and to keep the surface temperature low enough that it doesn't rise well above freezing.

A light snow this time of year usually is too weak to pull that cold air downward or to keep temperatures at the surface close to freezing. A light snow in spring won't stick and often changes to rain. A heavy snow can keep the temperature about 32 or 33 even in the daytime and fall faster than it can melt.

Think back to March 30, 2003, for an example of that. Roanoke's temperature was a degree above freezing most of the day, yet 6 inches of wet snow fell, breaking freshly budding and blooming trees. More snow fell at colder spots in the higher elevations.

Precipitation arriving at night has a better chance to stick and stay as snow. The sun angle and lengthening days mean there is more solar energy collecting at the surface, and therefore the warmth is harder to counteract by falling snow.

A low pressure system moving far off the coast might be able to swing a little moisture back over us, but it's doubtful we will get the heavier precipitation that would be needed to maintain a significant snowfall.

So, snow fans, if Monday's storm doesn't turn around, the chances are getting more and more remote with each passing day.

It may well be time to absorb the same words as all the teams exiting the NCAA basketball tournament: Wait till next year.

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