Kevin Myatt

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About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

March pounces in like a lion

If you want a calm, mild March so we can gently drift into spring, you're probably going to be disappointed.

March is about to go bonkers with big storm systems, large up and down shifts in the jet stream resulting in temperatures fluctuating between extremes, and quite likely a lot of precipitation in some dry areas that need it, including our neck of the woods.

A powerhouse low pressure system is likely to form in the general vicinity of Mississippi or Alabama early next week and then move northeastward along or just west of the Appalachian Mountains on Tuesday and Wednesday.

I say "powerhouse" because this does not look like even your run-of-the-mill "strong" low pressure system.

This low could become so tightly wound that cold air is pulled all the way around the center, coming in from the southwest rather than the typical northwest, while warm air is pulled well north of the storm center.

The projected path would make it a huge rainmaker for our area, because it would pull up large amounts of Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture along with warm temperatures ahead of it. Strong winds and severe thunderstorms would be possible, too, followed by a sudden shift to cold westerly winds as the storm passes.

There was some buzz earlier in the week when a few computer forecast models took the storm up the East Coast rather than more inland.

An East Coast track could have produced a blizzard for many of the states bordering the Atlantic Ocean, including Virginia.

But persistent high pressure in the western Atlantic has bumped most storm systems well inland this year, toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

That feature is still there and very likely to do the same thing again. The computer forecast models have picked up on that, and have generally converged on a path much more inland.

The big snows from this storm will likely stay well west of our area, though a slightly more eastward track could bring some heavy wet snow into the higher elevations once the low pressure has moved north of the area. There may be the typical post-cold-front snow showers about Thursday, too, the kind that piled up to 15 inches in West Virginia's mountains earlier this week.

There is still time for the track to change, but it would be highly unlikely for it to shift east enough against the high pressure system to bring a major snowstorm to Southwest Virginia.

Whatever its exact track, the low pressure system will whip in cold air behind it as it spins into southeast Canada. That could set the stage for a second storm very late next week or the following weekend.

If you like snow, a possible storm late next week or another that might form in the March 11-14 range may be the last swings of the bat for this winter season. The pattern will be more favorable than it has been all season for winter storm potential, though still not perfect.

As we get later in March, the increasing sun angle and longer days start returning more warmth to the area, so it usually takes a really dynamic storm system or an extreme intrusion of Arctic air for substantial snow to occur. We may have a shot at it, but until proven otherwise, it is still a long shot.

Let's take it one storm at a time. The Tuesday storm will take the stage first, and could be quite impressive with rain and wind.

It appears likely that regions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will get much-needed drought relief during the next couple of weeks.

The price will be less-than-ideal getting-outside weather for all of you with spring fever.

Taking a break

I am planning to take a break from Weather Journal through March 12. However, with the pattern potentially active, I do plan to make some updates through the week on my weather blog on roanoke.com. If a significant winter storm threat develops for next weekend, I may produce a column for the newspaper next Saturday.

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