Kevin Myatt

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About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

Be thankful for tornado odds

Experts were warning of a vicious severe weather threat in the nation's heartland six days before it happened.

The National Weather Service issued more than 1,000 tornado warnings, almost all with substantial lead time.

But when faced with a particularly intense outbreak of the most violent storm on Earth, there is really only so much that can be done.

In an era of less extensive technology and communications, Tuesday's tornado outbreak in the south-central and southeastern United States probably would have killed hundreds. That's no solace to the families of at least 59 people who lost their lives in the angry winds, and thousands more recovering from injuries or property damage.

Faced with winds 150 mph or stronger, there's only so much good getting in the center of a house will do, though that is far better than trying to drive away from a tornado in the dark. Those without storm shelters or basements had nowhere to hide.

Southwest Virginians, count your blessings every day that you live where an event like Tuesday's is extremely unlikely.

I didn't say impossible. The last tornado outbreak that killed more people than this event -- 76 dead on May 31, 1985 -- occurred largely in rugged areas of Pennsylvania, New York and Ohio that are just about as unlikely to see a massive tornado outbreak as we would be.

But there are significant factors related to common storm tracks and the location of our mountain ranges that play against having a tornado outbreak anything close to what happened Tuesday. Most of our tornadoes are isolated and weaker.

It would take a rare setup of atmospheric ingredients for an outbreak of multiple strong tornadoes to occur here. It is possible, but highly unlikely.

On Wednesday, I wrote about La Nina strengthening in the Pacific, and how that cooling of central Pacific water usually reduces the chances of cold and snow in our winters.

Studies have also linked La Nina to a substantial increase in winter tornadoes across the South.

You may recall that I said that there are usually not as many wet storm systems crossing the southern U.S. during a La Nina.

That may seem to contradict the idea of more tornadoes in the South for a moment, but actually, it doesn't. The storm track is usually much farther north during a La Nina winter. That means that low pressure systems, passing to the north, are dragging warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico northward.

As cold fronts from the West intersect the Gulf air moving northward, you have all the ingredients necessary for severe thunderstorms: moisture, instability with warm air at the surface that can rise into cold air aloft and wind shear, as strong westerly winds move atop strong southerly winds at the surface.

Tuesday was an extreme case.

Tornadoes are common in all the states hit the hardest -- Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi and Kentucky -- and winter tornadoes are not that unusual. But the number and intensity of long-lived supercell thunderstorms spinning out repeated tornadoes for hours is probably almost unprecedented for February in many of the states affected.

It will take a long time to sort out the final tallies on Tuesday's outbreak. There were more than 100 tornado reports, but of course, many of those were likely repeat reports of the same tornado. A more realistic number would be between 30 and 50 tornadoes.

In some cases, it is hard to tell whether a long path of damage was caused by a single tornado on the ground for hours or if the same thunderstorm spun out a series of tornadoes, each new twister picking up near where the last one left off, known as a "tornado family."

There is also the matter of intensity ranking, based on damage. It is likely that at least some of the damage will rate an EF-4 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale of tornado damage, which would be the next-to-highest rating, signaling 166-200 mph estimated winds. Some EF-5 can't be ruled out, but that is a rare designation last granted at the complete obliteration of Greensburg, Kan., last year.

Whether winter is over yet or not, a violent spring has already begun.

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