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Saturday, January 26, 2008

Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Warm weather could bring rain

Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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If you're tired of the cold, or you like snow and you're tired of a cold weather pattern that hasn't delivered much snow, you're about to get a much-desired pattern reset next week.

After another cold day that might have just a few scattered snow showers with a weak disturbance, a warm-up is going to start that will last at least until midweek.

A new weather pattern will take hold with the jet stream guiding the next couple of storm systems into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Each of these storms will sweep warm, moist air into our region. We could push above 60 a couple of days this coming week.

While all the warmth lovers will rejoice after so many cold days, snow lovers have some reason for hope.

The current pattern, while bringing lots of cold weather, isn't going to deliver much more in the way of snow. Sometimes you have to tear down the house to rebuild it.

The weather pattern will be in transition the next several days and could be volatile. What it settles into after the next seven to 10 days will, I believe, determine how winter 2007-08 is remembered. There are conflicting signals about what that will look like.

I suspect that we will have at least one more one- to two-week period of cold, probably in mid- to late February. If the overall weather pattern across the U.S. continues to be volatile, there could be a winter storm or two for us in that. We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

There is no such winter storm on the horizon for us now. Late next week, however, will have to be watched. Some moisture, ahead of a new storm system, may find its way into a brief renewal of cold air that will follow the system bringing warm rain at midweek.

January ends Thursday. After a warm start, the month is almost back to normal in its average temperature after several days of chill. It appears likely that next week's warmth will be enough to make it our fourth January in a row at least 2 degrees above normal.

The midweek potential for rain gives us a shot at overcoming the 112-inch precipitation deficit we have for the month as of Thursday. Considering that 18 of the past 23 months have been at least half an inch below normal, it's not going to alleviate the long-term drought, but it would get the year off to a decent start in rainfall.

Our biggest "rain" so far in 2008 was actually the melted snow and ice on Jan. 17. About 4 inches of snow and the layer of sleet and glaze ice on top melted down to six-tenths of an inch of liquid.

We can certainly use the precipitation that a more unsettled pattern would bring.

And whether you like warmth or snow, restoring moisture into the ground is still our most critical need for 2008. Either repeated rains in a mild pattern or repeated snows in a cold pattern would help with that.

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