Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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• Winter trying again to show up with snow
• We got graupel, but not on official record
• Moisture could get caught up in cold blast
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• Many looking past mild, quiet week toward possibly wild weekend
• Sprinkles or flurries possible Tuesday, but maybe something bigger for the weekend?
• For now, it looks like a quiet, mostly mild week ahead for SW Virginia
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It looks like bad news this weekend for all of you who were wanting fluffy snow and for those of you who were hoping the whole thing would pass by with nothing wintry at all.

It's the worst of all worlds for everybody: ice.

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg issued an ice storm warning Friday, effective from noon today through 9 a.m. Sunday for several counties along and near the Blue Ridge, including the Roanoke Valley. Counties to the west and southwest, including the New River Valley, were placed under a freezing rain advisory.

An ice storm warning means at least a quarter-inch of ice is expected to accumulate. A freezing rain advisory is issued when less than that much ice is expected.

A very light glaze, followed by sun shining on it, can be one of the most beautiful spectacles in all of creation, as every tree looks to be coated by jewels.

But there's nothing lovely about breaking tree branches and power lines sparking on the ground. That kind of damage begins to occur when we get about a quarter-inch of ice. Cars can begin sliding off the road with much less ice accumulation than that.

This evening's event will scrape the borderline between cold rain and ice, so there's a chance some of you will get by without ice. Last Feb. 13-14, many areas suffered a severe ice storm. A few places, including most of the Roanoke Valley, escaped that as the temperature hovered at 33 degrees.

A degree or two warmer than expected, and much of the area might get by with little more than cold rain. A degree or two colder, and everyone will get socked.

Fortunately, it looks like the heaviest moisture will pass to our northwest along with the low pressure system through Kentucky and West Virginia.

Before the ink could dry on my Wednesday column casting doubts on a more westward path for the low, computer forecast models began showing exactly that. The models didn't bounce around too much after that, coming to a consensus on a path west of us by early Friday.

I will always wonder if Tropical Storm Olga in the Caribbean had an impact on altering this storm's path. Olga, coming two weeks after the end of the official Atlantic hurricane season, could have helped intensify the strength of the high pressure system to its northeast. That could have in turn bumped the winter storm's path a little to the west.

Also, the winter storm may draw in warmth and moisture from Olga, making it a less snowy, more rainy system, at least for our area. Upstate New York, though, is likely to get hammered by more than a foot of snow.

The biggest factor for how icy it gets tonight is the strength and placement of high pressure in southeast Canada. A slightly more west-tracking low is going to allow a shallow layer of cold air to seep in at the surface along the Blue Ridge, pushed southward by the high pressure system. The longer and deeper it holds, the more ice we get.

Roads cooked by 70-plus degree sunshine this week should retain some warmth and not freeze solid immediately. In the beginning, any freezing rain that occurs will accumulate mostly on trees and other exposed or elevated objects. As the night progresses, bridges and overpasses are likely to become icy, and some other road surfaces may begin to freeze as temperatures drop.

The bad news becomes worse Sunday when strong winds kick in as the low to our west transfers energy to a new low along the coast. The winds could fell some more trees and power lines covered by ice. Those cold, northwest winds may carry in a little snow, too, but not a big snowfall like some of you have been hoping for.

This could be a rough situation, though it's not written in stone yet. Until it actually happens in the atmosphere, it's all hypothetical.

I'll continue to update the situation on my Weather Journal blog.