Kevin Myatt

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About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

Winter's first pass will be incomplete

At some point in today's game, all you Virginia and Virginia Tech fans will witness at least one incomplete pass or broken play that could have produced a touchdown if the players or the ball had moved just a little bit differently.

Similarly, over the next few days, all you winter fans will witness a weather setup that could have gone for a big early season snow if the pattern were just a little different.

From the line of scrimmage, the play looks pretty good if you like winter.

Today, you will wake up to the coldest morning since February. Low temperatures will likely be in the teens over much of the area, and in the low- to mid-20s from the Roanoke Valley south and east.

A low pressure system is in motion toward us across the southern U.S. It dumped quite a bit of snow on New Mexico on Friday. The track across the southern U.S. is one of our most productive for winter storms in the cold season.

This low, already carrying a good amount of Pacific moisture with it, will begin to tap the Gulf of Mexico as it moves east.

It will send out a smaller, weaker piece of atmospheric energy ahead of it late tonight and early Sunday. There is a slim chance this weak disturbance, some moisture and remnant cold air, could interact enough to trigger some light snow, sleet or freezing rain overnight. It's such a slim chance that it is no longer showing up in official forecasts, because it looks like most of the energy and moisture will stay to our south.

Then, winter's play really starts to unravel.

The high pressure system holding cold air over us will slip out to sea.

In January or February, we might have enough lingering cold air to allow snow or ice to develop. In late November, we still need almost everything to be textbook perfect for a winter storm.

The warmer, moist air being pulled northward by the eastward-tracking low will overrun and eventually overwhelm the cold air at the surface. By the time the low strengthens along the Gulf to pull much more copious amounts of moisture northward early next week, it will be well above freezing.

Finally, the low pressure system is going to run the wrong route, staying more inland as it turns up the East Coast rather than running just off the coast. This will bring some more needed rain into our area, but too much warmth for anything wintry.

So if the timing, intensity or placement of the cold high pressure system were a little different, and the low tracking across the southern U.S. were making a turn taking it farther to the east, winter could do something that the Cavaliers and Hokies will be totally incapable of doing today: putting points on the board before the game even begins.

Meteorological winter begins Dec. 1 and it's three weeks later on the astronomical calendar.

So the winter-haters can cheer this time around. With the unusual heavy foliage for late November, it would be in our overall best interest to have some more leaves blown off before any significant ice or snow arrives, as we could get a lot of tree damage.

But here's something about this storm system we can all cheer about: It looks like some drought-stricken areas of the Southeast that are within three months of drying up reservoirs will get some beneficial rain over the next few days.

We can wait on winter, but they can't wait much longer for water.

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