Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Warm October bids chilly goodbye
Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.
kevin.myatt
@roanoke.com
981-3341
Weather with Kevin Myatt
Recent columns
- Winter trying again to show up with snow
- We got graupel, but not on official record
- Moisture could get caught up in cold blast
- Column archive
Read the Weather Journal blog
- Many looking past mild, quiet week toward possibly wild weekend
- Sprinkles or flurries possible Tuesday, but maybe something bigger for the weekend?
- For now, it looks like a quiet, mostly mild week ahead for SW Virginia
- Weather Journal blog
#swvawx on Twitter
@KevinMyattWx
It looks as if a late run of cold mornings will keep this from being the warmest October on record in Roanoke.
But it's still a close call. Through Tuesday, the average temperature for the first 30 days at Roanoke Regional Airport was 64 degrees, just 0.3 degree below the October record of 64.3 degrees set in 1984. Today's temperatures would have to be many degrees warmer than the projected low in the mid-30s and projected high in the upper 60s for there to be any chance of establishing an October average temperature record.
It's not hard to figure out how this has been such a warm month.
Before Monday, there had not been a single low temperature below 40 and only two days with high temperatures below 60 since October began. October 2007 will go down as the month that produced the three latest high temperatures above 90 on record, with highs of 91 on Oct. 7 and 8 and 92 on Oct. 9. Before this year, there had been no recorded 90-degree temperatures in Roanoke later than Oct. 6.
On Oct. 9, the morning low of 71 not only equaled the normal high for the date, but it was also the warmest October low temperature ever recorded in Roanoke. That makes three months in a row that Roanoke has set a record for warmest low in the month -- 75 on Sept. 10 was the warmest low on record for that month, and 79 on Aug. 9 was not only the warmest low on record for August, but also for all time.
Even though October and the past three months overall have been extremely warm relative to normal, winterlike chill has finally made an appearance even as many leaves remain green.
Roanoke's first freezing temperature of the season occurred Monday. Based on the previous 10 years of record keeping, that's just about right on time: Oct. 30 is the average first freeze date since 1997. But looking at the entire 59-year period in which records have been kept at the airport, the first freeze was eight days later than average.
The average first freeze date for Roanoke has migrated a little later in the season over the past several decades even as the average last freeze date in spring has moved a little earlier.
November might break this year's trend of heat, at least at the beginning. We should start the month with some fairly normal days, which generally means highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
There are signs that warm high pressure building in the West will force the jet stream southward over the Eastern United States, leading to a possible cold outbreak about a week or so into November.
We'll have to see how this unfolds in the coming days and, if it does, whether it's a trend that can hang on for most of the month or whether a strong flow of wind high in the atmosphere from the Pacific will return us to more of a mild, but not necessarily warm, pattern.
It appears that there is a strong chance that 2007 could enter the books as Roanoke's warmest year on record. It might take some extreme winter chill in the last couple of months to stop that from happening.
