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Current Conditions: Fair
Temperature: 66°F Wind: From the VAR at 3 mph Relative Humidity: 60% |
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TUE Sunny 57°F...85°F |
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WED Sunny 56°F...84°F |
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THU Mostly Sunny 54°F...78°F |
Latest entries from the Weather Journal blog
About Kevin
Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.
Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.
Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.
The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.
Heat close to wearing out its welcome
By Kevin Myatt
The Roanoke Times
You hear sports announcers this time of year sometimes say a football team was just a couple of breaks away from a victory.
We were truly just a couple of breaks away from following our hottest month on record with the warmest September on record.
Instead, a mid-month cool snap, a couple of cool days to end the month and some morning chill even on days that ended up warm kept last month's average temperature out of record territory.
With an average temperature of 71.5 degrees, September 2007 was tied for the fifth-warmest such month on record in Roanoke, dating back to 1948.
The month's average high temperature of 83.5 degrees was the fourth-warmest on record for September. That was about 5 degrees above normal and almost 10 degrees warmer than the average high for last September, 74.2, which was the coolest on record.
In a sense, the warmth of September is much like an aftershock from our groundbreaking record heat in August.
Once the heat and drought get set, it's hard to break out of it.
We simply haven't seen the kind of wholesale weather pattern changes that will be necessary to move us on to more permanent fall-like weather.
Long-term forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center now depict a large dome of high pressure building over much of the continental United States over the next two weeks, bringing widespread above-normal temperatures and continued dryness well into October.
Below-normal temperatures will be confined to Alaska, according to the forecasts. Perhaps cold air will start to bank up there and roar down later in the season, but for now, summerlike weather will hang on.
Highs this week in the 80s and lows in the mid- to upper 50s will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Daily normal temperatures really start to drop as we head deeper into the fall season, so any prolonged temperatures in the 80s will be even farther above normal.
The last time we had 90-degree weather in October was 1959, when it happened as late as Oct. 6. At this point, it looks unlikely that feat will be repeated, but I've already been wrong a couple of times about saying we had seen our last 90-degree day.
If the stronger cold fronts do eventually start moving through regularly later in the season, an increasing concern will be fire danger, as stiff winds blow across dry vegetation.
For now, wind will not be a big issue, though drought will continue to intensify as we are under warm, stable high pressure. Chances of rain will be limited to scattered showers as weak cold fronts move through.
Those awaiting fall-like weather may be getting impatient, and I'm getting a little tired of writing about the persistent warmth and drought.
On the bright side, there should be lots of sunny, dry days ahead for outdoor activities.
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