Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.

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So where are all those darn hurricanes that were supposed to happen?

It's a tempting question to ask, with all these forecasts for an active Atlantic tropical season, following on the heels of similar 2006 forecasts that were largely a bust.

But let's hold our horses. It's not even August yet.

In 2004, five hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. even though there wasn't a single named storm by this time. We've already had two named storms this year.

Before the season, the National Hurricane Center projected 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes (winds 111 mph and higher) in the Atlantic Ocean. The Colorado State University team led by seasonal hurricane forecasting pioneer William Gray produced a similar forecast of 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

Personally, I think this Atlantic tropical season is going to get rather busy in about a month or so. I don't know if it will match these forecasts, but I doubt that we'll go another year without at least one hurricane hitting the U.S. coast.

While Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, the core of the season is typically August, September and October.

Last year, the party wrecker for the hurricane season was El Nino, which popped up rather unexpectedly around this time of year and hung on until it wilted just as unexpectedly in February.

El Nino, the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, focuses more of the storm action in the Pacific rather than the Atlantic.

The storminess it creates in the Pacific also intensifies high-level winds that blow east over the Atlantic. These storm winds shear the tops off developing tropical systems, allowing few to achieve hurricane status.

El Nino is nowhere to be found this year. In fact, the waters of the central Pacific have been just a little on the cool side, though not quite enough for a full-fledged version of El Nino's alter ego, La Nina.

Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, unlike the last few years, are not superhot. Temperatures in most of the Atlantic basin are within a degree or so of normal.

Hurricanes derive their energy from hot ocean water, especially when it is above 80 degrees.

There is an area of increasingly hot water in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, just west of Florida, stretching south into the western Caribbean, that is of some concern. Sea surface temperatures are as high as the mid-80s in this region. But some of the frequent hurricane-generating areas closer to Africa are running a tad cooler than normal.

Last season, in addition to El Nino, dust storms blowing westward off the Sahara were blamed by some scientists for putting a damper on the Atlantic hurricane season. At least some experts are suggesting that dust blowing off Africa may again be blocking sunlight that warms the ocean.

It all goes to show how complicated hurricane formation is, both in forecasting for a season and projecting patterns many decades ahead.

If in fact worldwide temperatures continue to climb in the 21st century as many climatologists forecast, the extra heat absorbed by the ocean could indeed provide more fuel for intense hurricanes, as many scientists predict.

But increased temperatures could also fuel stronger upper-level winds that would rip hurricanes apart, as was suggested in a University of Miami study earlier this year. Hotter temperatures could also lead to more droughts in Africa, leading to more dust storms that could help cool the Atlantic waters.

There are years of observation and study ahead on those long-term questions. In the short term, we should know before long what this season will look like. Updated forecasts are usually issued by the National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University early in August. Don't be surprised if these second-look forecasts shave a little off the projected number of hurricanes.

If we get to the end of August and we're not much further along, you will have more reason to doubt the hurricane forecasts. But even an overall puny hurricane season can produce one monster, and it only takes one severe hurricane in a populated area to make the entire season infamous.